Texas State vs Boise State Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 09:13 PM ET

Boise State has won six straight games, and the Broncos just went into Pullman and beat Washington State 31-10. Now they’re back on that blue turf, where they’re supposed to handle Texas State by nearly two touchdowns. I understand the argument. Boise State has been the more dependable team, particularly defensively. But Texas State has scored 66 against Colorado State and 63 against Incarnate Word this season. The Bobcats aren’t going to be intimidated by a scoreboard. Whether they can stop Boise State is another question entirely. Be ready for the college football betting action with our free college football picks.

Texas State visits Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on The CW. The betting market lists Boise State around -11.5, with the total at 65.5. The early forecast calls for temperatures near 53 degrees, winds around 4 mph with gusts near 10, and dry conditions. It’s an open-air stadium, but weather shouldn’t be much of an obstacle.

Texas State Can Score, But Can It Defend Boise State?

Texas State is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in Pac-12 play after beating Utah State 20-17 on Saturday. The Bobcats have won three of their last four, with their only loss during that stretch coming 31-29 at San Diego State. They also demolished Colorado State 66-27. That was an impressive offensive performance, although the narrow win over Utah State showed Texas State can be dragged into a much slower game. The Bobcats are 0-2 in true road games, which makes this trip to Boise particularly difficult.

The offense has been explosive, averaging roughly 37 points per game through seven games. Texas State scored 49 against North Texas, 63 against Incarnate Word, and 66 against Colorado State. The Bobcats have been able to attack through the air and on the ground, and their ability to create big plays is the reason they’re dangerous. Boise State has been good defensively, but Fresno State managed 31 against the Broncos earlier this month. Texas State needs to establish its running game and keep Boise State from controlling possession. If the Bobcats can get into the 30s, they’ll have a chance to cover.

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Defensively, Texas State has been inconsistent. The Bobcats gave up 59 to Texas, 35 to North Texas, and 31 to UTSA. But they held Utah State to 17 and Colorado State to 27, so the defense has shown improvement. Boise State presents a much tougher challenge than Utah State, particularly on the ground. Texas State needs to tackle better and prevent the explosive rushing plays that have been a major part of the Broncos’ offense. If the Bobcats allow Boise State to control the line of scrimmage, this could get away from them quickly.

Boise State Has Been Getting Better Every Week

Boise State is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Pac-12 play after beating Washington State 31-10. The Broncos have won six straight since losing 34-27 at Oregon in the opener. They also beat Fresno State 38-31, Utah State 37-18, and Western Michigan 32-7. That’s a strong collection of results. Boise State is unbeaten at home, and the Broncos have been much more consistent defensively than Texas State. The challenge is preventing the Bobcats from turning this into a shootout.

The Broncos have been productive on the ground, and that was the difference against Washington State. Boise State rushed for several explosive plays, including two long fourth-quarter touchdowns that turned a 10-10 game into a comfortable victory. That’s the kind of offensive ability that should worry Texas State. The Bobcats have struggled defensively against stronger opponents, and Boise State should be able to establish the run. The Broncos also need to protect the football, because Texas State has enough offense to capitalize on mistakes.

Defensively, Boise State has been excellent against most opponents. The Broncos held Western Michigan to seven, Washington State to ten, and Utah State to 18. Fresno State managed 31, which shows the defense isn’t invincible. Texas State has a more explosive offense than Washington State, so Boise State can’t expect another easy afternoon. The Broncos need to prevent big passing plays and force the Bobcats to sustain drives. If they can keep Texas State under 30, they should have a very good chance to win comfortably.

Texas State vs Boise State Picks and Predictions

Texas State +11.5

I’ll take Texas State getting 11.5 points. Boise State is the better team, and I expect the Broncos to win at home. But Texas State has enough offensive ability to make a double-digit spread uncomfortable. The Bobcats have scored at least 29 in four of their last five games, and they should be able to create opportunities against Boise State. The concern is the Broncos’ rushing attack. If Boise State controls the ground game and keeps Texas State’s offense on the sideline, this could turn into a two-touchdown victory. But I think the Bobcats score enough to hang around. Something like 38-31 Boise State makes sense.

Over 65.5

I’m taking Over 65.5. Texas State has been involved in several high-scoring games, and Boise State has enough offensive ability to exploit the Bobcats’ defensive weaknesses. The Broncos scored 38 against Fresno State and 37 against Utah State, while Texas State put up 66 against Colorado State. The danger is Boise State controlling possession and turning this into a slower game, particularly after the Broncos held Washington State to ten. But Texas State has a much more explosive offense than Washington State, and I expect both teams to find the end zone regularly. A game in the high 60s or low 70s combined looks reasonable.

Final Picks: Texas State +11.5 and Over 65.5