Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday, January 11, 2026

By: David Anicetti Published 01/07/2026, 12:15 AM ET

The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) head to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots (14-3) on Sunday night in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs. The Chargers limp in after back-to-back losses at Denver (19-3) and home to Houston (20-16), while the Patriots closed the regular season with dominant wins over Miami (38-10) and at the Jets (42-10). Make sure to use our free NFL picks to build your bankroll.

Chargers vs Patriots Game Information

Date: Sunday, January 11
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
TV: NBC / Peacock
Weather: 32°

Los Angeles Chargers Outlook

Justin Herbert threw for 3,727 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions during the regular season. The ground game is committee-based, led by Kimani Vidal (643 yards) with Omarion Hampton (questionable) also in the mix. If linemen such as Bradley Bozeman (questionable) are limited, it becomes harder to protect Herbert and keep the Patriots from forcing three-and-outs.

Defensively, the Chargers can create pressure with Tuli Tuipulotu (13 sacks), but the injuries have hit the defense, especially in the secondary, with Elijah Molden (questionable). Against a New England offense that’s been efficient and aggressive, Los Angeles needs to stop the Pats early in drives and must avoid giving up big gains that give New England good field position.

New England Patriots Outlook

Drake Maye had an MVP-caliber regular season, throwing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Stefon Diggs (1,013 receiving yards) was Maye’s favorite target. The Patriots had a balanced attack with TreVeyon Henderson rushing for 911 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. New England’s best offensive stretches come when Maye is protected, and the talented QB can field his receivers over the middle or down the field.

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On defense, the Patriots tackle well, with Robert Spillane (questionable) a key name to monitor. If Spillane and Harold Landry III (questionable) are close to full strength, New England can pressure Herbert without constant blitzing and keep extra players in coverage. At home, in cold conditions, that formula typically forces more running plays that the Pats can stop.

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction

New England has more balance offensively and has a defense that can stop both the run and pass enough to come out on top. Herbert can keep the Chargers alive, but after two low-output games, Los Angeles needs a better run game and early-down results to avoid letting the Patriots dictate tempo. That will be hard to do against a New England defense that has performed well all season. Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots win and cover ATS, 23-17.

Best Picks

New England Patriots -3.5
Under 46.5

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