Same Game Parlay for Commanders/Packers - Best Bets for TNF

By: Devin Erickson-Sheehy Updated 10/30/2025, 12:18 PM ET

Looking to lock in some value for tonight’s Commanders vs Packers showdown? We’ve built a three-leg Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football that combines a moneyline winner, a quarterback rushing prop, and a total play that leans into how these teams match up.

Put together, these selections deliver strong value at +499 at FanDuel.

SGP for Commanders/Packers:

Packers Moneyline (-164)

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Jayden Daniels Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Under 48.5 Total Points (-105)

Check out our NFL picks for all Week 2 action here at Picks & Parlays, and follow along all season!

Why We Like Packers Moneyline

The Packers moneyline (-164) show value as a parlay leg in the trusty confines of Lambeau Field. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay has posted a dominant 39-12 home record. We like backing a trusted home side in an early Thursday Night game.

Quarterback Jordan Love looked sharp in Week 1, playing turnover-free football while balancing the passing attack with a steady ground game. Against a Commanders defense still finding its footing, Green Bay’s early tempo and raucous home crowd should give them the upper hand in this primetime matchup.

Why We like Daniels Over 44.5 Rushing Yards

Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels brings a dynamic rushing element to this contest. With a line set at 44.5 rushing yards, oddsmakers recognize his ability to impact games with his legs.

The Packers’ pass rush forces quarterbacks off-script, often pushing them into scramble situations. Daniels is perfectly suited to exploit those breakdowns, and if the Commanders fall behind, he’ll likely tuck and run even more. Analytical projections back the over, making this one of the sharper prop angles on the board.

Why We Like Under 48.5

Despite both teams earning strong Week 1 wins, the total of 48.5 points feels inflated. Washington’s defense suffocated the Giants, holding them to just six points, while Green Bay prefers a slower pace at home, especially if they're protecting a lead.

Sharp betting action has already tilted toward the under, and both coaching staffs are likely to emphasize adjustments that limit explosive plays. Expect a tighter, grind-it-out style game that falls just short of the number.