Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction for Monday May 18 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/18/2026, 12:00 AM ET

The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet for Game 7 of their Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series on Monday, May 18, 2026, at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET with coverage on ESPN. This series has been tightly contested throughout, and both teams enter the deciding game with momentum swings on their side after trading wins across the last six matchups. Buffalo enters as a slight home favorite at -112 on the moneyline, while Montreal is listed at -108. The total for the game is set at 5.5 goals. Get in on all the action with our free NHL Picks.

Previous Game Recap

Buffalo earned a dominant 8-3 victory over Montreal in Game 6 to force this winner-take-all matchup back to KeyBank Center. The Canadiens jumped out early with three first-period goals, but Buffalo completely controlled the final two periods by scoring eight unanswered goals. The Sabres generated consistent offensive pressure throughout the night and eventually overwhelmed Montreal after the game shifted momentum late in the opening period.

Buffalo received major production from several key players during the victory. Tage Thompson delivered one of the best performances of the postseason with one goal and three assists while finishing with six shots on goal. Rasmus Dahlin added a goal and four assists from the blue line and controlled play throughout his ice time. Jack Quinn contributed two goals and one assist, while Zach Benson also finished with a goal and an assist. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen settled the game down in relief by stopping all 18 shots he faced after entering early in the contest.

Montreal had strong moments early before the game unraveled defensively. Ivan Demidov scored once while leading the Canadiens with five shots on goal. Jake Evans added a goal and an assist, and Arber Xhekaj also found the back of the net. Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson each recorded assists during the opening period surge. Jakub Dobes faced heavy pressure for most of the night and stopped 27 of the 33 shots he faced during his time in net.

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Canadiens Looking to Regain Early-Series Form

Montreal enters Game 7 with a 48-24-10 overall record and a strong 24-9-8 mark away from home this season. The Canadiens recently lost to Buffalo 8-3 in Game 6 after recently winning over the Sabres 6-3 in Game 5. Over the last five games, Montreal has alternated wins and losses throughout the series, including recent victories by scores of 6-3, 6-2, and 5-1 against Buffalo.

The Canadiens averaged 3.40 goals per game during the season while allowing 3.06 goals against per contest. Montreal recorded 26.3 shots per game and allowed 27.8 shots against. Their power play converted 23.1 percent of opportunities with 56 power-play goals scored, while the penalty kill finished at 78.2 percent. Nick Suzuki led the team with 101 points and 72 assists, while Cole Caufield paced Montreal with 51 goals.

One major strength for Montreal entering this matchup is offensive production. The Canadiens consistently generated scoring throughout the series and scored at least five goals in three of the six games against Buffalo. However, the defensive side remains a concern after allowing eight goals in the previous contest and giving up at least three goals in four of the six games this series.

Sabres Returning Home With Momentum

Buffalo comes into this decisive game with a 50-23-9 overall record and a 26-10-5 home record during the season. The Sabres recently won over Montreal 8-3 in Game 6 after recently lost to the Canadiens 6-3 in Game 5. Buffalo has also alternated wins and losses over the last five games in the series, including recent victories by scores of 8-3 and 3-2.

The Sabres averaged 3.45 goals per game this season while allowing 2.93 goals against per game. Buffalo generated 28.1 shots per contest and allowed 29.1 shots against. The Sabres scored 48 power-play goals while converting 19.5 percent of opportunities. Defensively, Buffalo posted an 81.9 percent penalty kill percentage and also recorded 11 short-handed goals during the season. Tage Thompson led the team with 81 points and 40 goals, while Rasmus Dahlin contributed 55 assists.

Buffalo’s biggest strength entering Game 7 is balanced offensive production combined with steady goaltending numbers across the roster. The Sabres have now scored at least six goals in three games during this series and showed the ability to respond quickly after losses. Their defensive numbers also remain slightly stronger overall than Montreal’s entering this matchup.

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick

Buffalo Sabres Moneyline

Buffalo enters this game with home ice advantage and significant momentum after the dominant Game 6 performance. The Sabres have consistently responded well throughout the series after losses, and their overall defensive numbers remain slightly stronger than Montreal’s entering Game 7. Buffalo also averaged more goals per game during the regular season while allowing fewer goals against. With the Sabres returning to KeyBank Center following an eight-goal performance, Buffalo looks positioned to finish the series at home.

Total Pick:

Over 5.5

This series has featured several high-scoring games, including totals of 11, 9, 8, and 6 goals over the last five matchups. Both teams averaged more than 3.40 goals per game during the regular season, and offensive production has consistently been present throughout the series. Montreal has shown the ability to score in Buffalo, while the Sabres enter this matchup after erupting for eight goals in Game 6. The recent scoring trends point toward another game with multiple offensive opportunities on both sides.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 4 – Montreal Canadiens 3