Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 29 2026
Montreal has won three straight, and I can see why somebody would want to ride the Canadiens another night. They’ve been winning on the road, they’re finding enough offense, and they just shut out St. Louis 2-0 on Tuesday. That’s a pretty good run. But Dallas is a different problem. The Stars have been giving up almost nothing lately, and they’re doing it against teams that can score. I think Montreal is going to have a much harder time finding room Thursday.
The Canadiens visit American Airlines Center in Dallas for an 8:00 PM ET game against the Stars. Both teams have seven wins, and neither has been losing much lately. I’m taking Dallas on the moneyline and looking at Under 6.0 goals. Get in on all the action before it happens with our free NHL picks.
Montreal Canadiens Have Been Winning Without Their Full Lineup
Montreal is 7-3-2, including a 3-1-1 road record. The Canadiens have won three in a row and six of their last ten. They haven’t been blowing everybody out, but they’ve been doing enough to get the job done. Tuesday’s 2-0 win in St. Louis was a good example. Montreal didn’t need a huge offensive night. The Canadiens got a couple of goals, played a smart defensive game and went home with two points.
Montreal is averaging a little more than three goals a game while allowing about three. The offense has been good enough, but the power play has been struggling. That’s a problem against Dallas because the Stars have one of the best penalty kills in the league. Montreal has been taking too many penalties as well, averaging more than five a game. You can get away with that against some teams. Dallas isn’t one I’d want to keep giving extra chances.
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The Canadiens are missing some important players. Nick Suzuki is out with an upper-body injury, and Ivan Demidov is sidelined with a lower-body problem. Samuel Montembeault is also out, which leaves Montreal relying on its other goaltenders. Those are big absences. Montreal has done a good job winning without them, but eventually missing that much offense and goaltending depth catches up with a team. Dallas is a tough place to test how long that can continue.
Dallas Stars Have Been Making Goals Hard to Find
Dallas is 7-4-1, with a 4-2 home record. The Stars have won seven of their last ten games, and they’ve been allowing only 1.8 goals per game during that stretch. That’s excellent defensive hockey. They don’t need to score five every night because they’re not giving the other team many chances. Dallas has been comfortable winning games where one bad turnover could decide everything.
The Stars are scoring around 2.7 goals per game, which isn’t much compared with some of the better offenses in the league. But they’re allowing only about two, and that’s why they’ve been winning. Opponents are getting barely more than 22 shots on goal a night. Think about that. Montreal could spend the whole game working for twenty-five shots and still have to beat a goaltender who’s been playing terrific hockey. Dallas also has a penalty kill sitting above ninety percent, so I don’t see the Canadiens getting much help there.
Dallas has injuries of its own. Matt Duchene is out with an abdominal injury, Esa Lindell has been sidelined with a lower-body problem, and Radek Faksa is unavailable. Sam Steel and Kyle Capobianco have also been dealing with injuries. That’s enough to make me a little nervous about the Stars’ depth. But they’ve been defending well despite those absences. Until somebody shows me they can consistently create chances against Dallas, I’m not going to bet against that defense.
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Picks and Predictions
Dallas Stars Moneyline
I’m taking Dallas. Montreal has been playing well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canadiens keep this close. They’ve already won three straight, and their goaltending was terrific Tuesday. But Dallas has been the better defensive team, and the Stars are at home. Montreal is missing Suzuki and Demidov, which takes away two important offensive pieces. Against a team allowing only about two goals a night, that’s a lot to overcome. I think Dallas can get enough offense to win a tight one. Give me the Stars on the moneyline.
Under 6.0 Goals — Target Total
Under 6.0 is the play I’d rather have here. Dallas has been allowing 1.8 goals a game over its last ten, and Montreal just won a 2-0 game. Neither team needs to turn this into a track meet. The Canadiens will probably try to keep things tight and wait for their chances, while Dallas is perfectly happy playing that way. A couple of power-play goals could make this uncomfortable, but I don’t see either team getting four or five. Something like Dallas 3-2 makes sense, and six gives us a push if it lands there.
Final Picks: Dallas Stars Moneyline and Under 6.0 Goals (target total)
Preview prepared October 28, 2026.
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