New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 19 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/19/2026, 12:00 AM ET

The New York Islanders travel to face the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM on ESPN+. Ottawa enters as a -142 favorite while the Islanders are +120 underdogs, and the total is set at 5.5 goals. Be sure to also check out our free NHL picks for more action across the league.

Islanders Bringing Balanced Road Form into Ottawa

The Islanders come into this matchup with a 39-24-5 record, including a strong 21-13-3 mark on the road. They have been playing well recently, having recently won over Toronto, Calgary, St. Louis, and San Jose while recently losing to Los Angeles.

Offensively, New York averages 2.88 goals per game while allowing just 2.75 goals against per game, showing a balanced approach. They generate 28.2 shots per game and allow 28.1, keeping things fairly even, while their power play has produced 33 goals at a 16.4% success rate.

One key strength for the Islanders is their disciplined defensive structure and penalty kill, which sits at 82.1%. Combined with allowing zero short-handed goals, this team consistently limits high-danger chances and keeps games tight.

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Senators Looking to Capitalize at Home

Ottawa enters at 34-23-9 overall with a 16-11-5 home record. They have also been in solid form, recently winning over San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, and Seattle while recently losing to Montreal.

The Senators bring more offensive firepower, averaging 3.36 goals per game while allowing 3.11 goals against. They also control the pace better in terms of shots, putting up 28.7 per game while allowing just 24.3, indicating a strong territorial advantage.

A major edge for Ottawa is their power play, which has scored 50 goals at a 23.4% clip. However, their penalty kill at 74.0% remains a concern, meaning special teams could be a decisive factor in this matchup.

Islanders vs Senators Pick

New York Islanders +1.5

The Islanders’ defensive consistency and strong penalty kill give them a solid chance to stay within a goal in this matchup. While Ottawa has the offensive upside, their defensive inconsistencies and weaker penalty kill open the door for New York to keep things tight throughout. This feels like a one-goal game either way, making the Islanders on the puck line the safer play.

Islanders vs Senators Total Pick

Under 5.5

I’m leaning toward the under here because the Islanders tend to slow games down and rely on structure rather than high-scoring pace. Ottawa can score, but against a disciplined defensive team like New York, I expect fewer clean scoring chances and a more controlled tempo.

Final Score Prediction: Senators 3, Islanders 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.