New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Tuesday March 17 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/17/2026, 01:00 AM ET

The New York Islanders travel to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM on ESPN+. The Islanders come in as -130 favorites, while the Maple Leafs are listed at +110, and the total is set at 5.5 goals. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily betting insights and predictions.

Islanders Looking to Stay Consistent on the Road

The New York Islanders enter this matchup with a 38-24-5 record and a solid 20-13-3 mark on the road. They have been playing competitive hockey recently, recently winning over the Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks while recently losing to the Los Angeles Kings twice. This shows a team that is capable of grinding out wins, especially in tight games.

The Islanders are averaging 2.88 goals per game while allowing 2.78, with 28.1 shots per game and allowing the same number defensively. Their special teams include 31 power play goals with a 15.9% success rate and a strong 81.8% penalty kill. They also bring discipline in short-handed situations, not allowing any short-handed goals.

What stands out most for the Islanders is their defensive structure and ability to play low-scoring, controlled games. They limit opportunities and keep games tight, which makes them dangerous in close matchups like this.

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Maple Leafs Leaning on Offense at Home

Toronto comes into this game with a 29-27-12 record and a 17-11-7 mark at home. They have been inconsistent recently, recently winning over the Minnesota Wild and Anaheim Ducks while recently losing to the Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, and Tampa Bay Lightning. This inconsistency has made it difficult for them to build momentum.

The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.15 goals per game while allowing 3.44, taking 27.3 shots per game while allowing 32.2. Their power play has been effective with 32 goals and a 19.8% success rate, and their penalty kill sits at 83.5%. However, their defensive numbers have been a concern.

Toronto’s biggest issue has been their defense, as they allow too many shots and goals. While they can score, their inability to consistently get stops has led to uneven results.

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Pick

New York Islanders Moneyline (-130)

The Islanders have the defensive edge in this matchup, and that should be the difference. Toronto has shown they can score, but their defensive struggles and high shots allowed make them vulnerable. The Islanders’ ability to control pace and limit scoring chances should help them secure a road win.

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Total Pick

Under 5.5

I like the under in this matchup because the Islanders tend to play lower-scoring games and focus on defense. Even though Toronto can score, the Islanders’ structure should slow things down and limit high-danger chances, keeping this game under the total.

Final Score Prediction: New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.