Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 5 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/05/2026, 01:45 AM ET

The Ottawa Senators travel to face the Calgary Flames on Thursday March 5, 2026 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and RDS. At the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline, total, or puck line. Be sure to also check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights and predictions.

Senators Bringing Offensive Pressure to Calgary

The Ottawa Senators enter this matchup with a 29-22-9 record overall and have been competitive on the road with a 15-12-4 record away from home. Ottawa has gone 2-3 in their last five games, recently losing to the Edmonton Oilers 5-4 in overtime, losing to the Detroit Red Wings 2-1 in overtime, and losing to the Carolina Hurricanes 4-3. The Senators did pick up wins recently over the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2 and the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1 in overtime.

Ottawa has been solid offensively this season, averaging 3.29 goals per game while producing 28.7 shots per contest. Defensively they allow 3.19 goals per game, but they have been strong at limiting shot volume with opponents averaging just 24.4 shots against them.

One area where Ottawa has found success this season is on the power play. The Senators have scored 45 power play goals with a 23.6% power play conversion rate, giving them a dangerous special teams unit that can capitalize on opponent mistakes.

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Flames Hoping Home Ice Sparks a Turnaround

The Calgary Flames come into this matchup with a 24-29-7 overall record and have gone 15-11-4 at home this season. Calgary has struggled recently, losing three straight games. They recently lost to the Dallas Stars 6-1, lost to the Anaheim Ducks 3-2 in a shootout, and lost to the Los Angeles Kings 2-0. The Flames did pick up a win over the San Jose Sharks 4-1 and earlier defeated the Edmonton Oilers 4-3.

Calgary has had difficulty generating offense this season, averaging just 2.47 goals per game while producing 29.1 shots per contest. Defensively they have been more solid, allowing 2.92 goals per game while giving up 29.3 shots per game.

One strength for Calgary has been their penalty kill, which is operating at 82.5% this season. The Flames have also scored eight short-handed goals, demonstrating their ability to create opportunistic scoring chances even when killing penalties.

Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames Pick

Senators vs Flames Pick

Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline

Ottawa appears to have the edge in this matchup thanks to their stronger offensive production and ability to control play at even strength. The Senators average nearly a full goal more per game than Calgary, and the Flames have struggled to consistently generate offense. With Ottawa also limiting shots effectively, the Senators should have a good chance to control the tempo of this game.

Senators vs Flames Total Pick

Pick: Take the Under

I like the under in this matchup because Calgary tends to play lower-scoring games and their offense has struggled throughout the season. While Ottawa can generate scoring chances, the Flames’ defensive structure and strong penalty kill could slow the pace of the game. I expect a tighter contest that stays under a typical NHL total.

Final Score Prediction: Senators 3, Flames 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.