Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Saturday February 28 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 02/28/2026, 05:25 AM ET

The Ottawa Senators travel to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday, February 28, 2026. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM with coverage available on ESPN+. This Atlantic Division showdown features two teams battling for positioning in a tightly contested race. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more expert analysis and daily betting selections.

Senators Looking to Build on Recent Road Success

Ottawa enters this matchup with a 28-22-8 overall record and a 14-12-3 mark on the road. The Senators recently dropped a 2-1 overtime decision to Detroit but picked up wins over Philadelphia 2-1 in overtime, Pittsburgh 3-2, and New Jersey 4-1. They also fell to Carolina 4-3 in a competitive outing.

The Senators are averaging 3.30 goals per game while allowing 3.23 goals against. They generate 28.5 shots per contest and limit opponents to 24.5 shots, which is one of the better defensive shot suppression numbers in this matchup. Ottawa has scored 43 power play goals at a 23.1% clip but has struggled on the penalty kill at 73.1%, allowing 45 power play goals.

What stands out about Ottawa is their offensive balance combined with strong shot prevention. While their penalty kill is a concern, their ability to limit shots at even strength gives them a foundation to stay competitive in high-tempo games.

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Maple Leafs Trying to Protect Home Ice

Toronto comes in at 27-23-9 overall with a 16-9-6 record at home. The Maple Leafs have struggled recently, losing to Florida 5-1 and Tampa Bay 4-2. Prior to that, they secured wins over Edmonton 5-2, Calgary 4-2, and Vancouver 3-2 in a shootout.

Toronto is averaging 3.26 goals per game but allowing 3.40 goals against. They put up 27.4 shots per contest while surrendering 31.7 shots, which has placed added pressure on their defensive unit. On special teams, the Maple Leafs have scored 26 power play goals at a 19.3% rate, while their penalty kill has been strong at 84.1%.

The key for Toronto is tightening up defensively. Allowing over 31 shots per game creates scoring opportunities for opponents, and against a Senators team that averages 3.30 goals per contest, defensive discipline will be critical.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Pick

Senators vs Maple Leafs Pick

Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline

Ottawa’s ability to suppress shots and generate consistent offense gives them the edge in this matchup. While Toronto has been solid at home, their defensive numbers and recent form raise concerns. The Senators’ offensive production and road competitiveness make them the stronger play.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Total Pick

Pick: Over if total is set at 6.5

I expect scoring chances on both sides. Ottawa averages 3.30 goals per game and allows 3.23, while Toronto gives up 3.40 goals per contest. With both teams capable offensively and Toronto surrendering a high number of shots, this game leans toward the over.

Final Score Prediction: Senators 4, Maple Leafs 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.