St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions Monday December 22 2025
The St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning showdown arrives at a critical point in the 2025-26 NHL season. Both clubs are navigating injury challenges, with the Blues seeking road value and the Lightning aiming to overcome key absences at home. Bettors can find deeper insights and game-day breakdowns through our Free NHL picks before placing their wagers.
St. Louis Blues: Defensive Grit on the Road
The St. Louis Blues head into this road matchup with a 14-15-8 record overall and 7-7-3 away. Their last five games show resilience: a 6-2 loss at Florida on December 20, a 2-1 overtime win versus New York Rangers on December 18, a 1-0 victory against Winnipeg on December 17, a 5-2 loss versus Nashville on December 15, and a 3-2 win against Chicago on December 12. They're averaging 2.54 goals for per game while allowing 3.38, with 25.5 shots for and 27.9 against.
Robert Thomas leads with 27 points (9 goals, 18 assists), including 5 power-play assists. Jake Neighbours paces goals with 10 (0 on power play) on 34 shots. The power play is at 18.4% (18 goals), and the penalty kill at 77.4%. Goaltending includes Jordan Binnington (7-8-6, 3.41 GAA, .873 SV%) and Joel Hofer (7-7-2, 2.91 GAA, .898 SV%). Injuries: Bjugstad IR (December 22), Holloway IR (January 27), Kyrou IR (December 27), Snuggerud IR (January 13), Dean IR-NR (January 7).
Road play (7-7-3) with recent wins highlight grit, but low scoring (2.54 GF/G) and high goals-against (3.38) concern against potent offenses.
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Tampa Bay Lightning: Home Offense Hit by Injuries
The Tampa Bay Lightning sit at 19-13-3 overall and 9-9-0 at home. Their last five: a 6-4 win versus Carolina on December 20, a 2-1 loss versus Los Angeles on December 18, a 5-2 loss versus Florida on December 15, a 3-2 shootout win at New York Islanders on December 13, and an 8-4 win at New Jersey on December 11. They're averaging 3.23 goals for per game while allowing 2.66, with 28.0 shots for and 26.7 against.
Nikita Kucherov leads with 43 points (13 goals, 30 assists), including 8 power-play assists. Brandon Hagel has 18 goals (2 on power play) on 95 shots, but IR (December 27). The power play is at 17.0% (19 goals), and the penalty kill at 84.1%. Goaltending includes Andrei Vasilevskiy (12-7-2, 2.38 GAA, .913 SV%) and Jonas Johansson (7-6-1, 2.76 GAA, .897 SV%). Injuries: Hagel IR (December 27), Lilleberg IR (January 20), Cernak IR-LT (December 31), Hedman IR (February 1).
Home average (9-9-0) with injuries thinning depth, especially Hagel out.
St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Low-Scoring vs. Injury Impact
This game contrasts Blues' low offense (2.54 GF/G) and high GA (3.38) against Lightning's balanced scoring (3.23 GF/G) but depleted lineup (Hagel, Hedman, Cernak out long). Blues injuries heavy upfront.
Goaltending edges Vasilevskiy (.913 SV%). Special teams close.
Betting Trends and Over/Under Outlook
Stats lean Under with Lightning's 2.66 GA/G and Blues' low 2.54 GF/G. Combined averages (5.89 total goals) mid, but injuries lower output. Lines imply Lightning favorites (+2 on Blues), total likely 6.0.
Trends: Lightning home mixed, Blues road low-scoring.
Game-Changing Factors
Lightning injuries major (Hagel/Hedman/Cernak out). Blues depleted upfront. Home Lightning (9-9-0) vs. road Blues (7-7-3). Goaltending and low offense key.
Key Players to Watch
Thomas (27P) and Neighbours (10G) lead Blues. Kucherov (43P) carries Lightning. Binnington/Hofer vs. Vasilevskiy/Johansson.
St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick and Prediction
I'm leaning toward the Under and Blues puck line value. Lightning injuries—Hagel, Hedman, Cernak out—dull offense and D, while Blues low scoring (2.54 GF/G) keeps totals down. Vasilevskiy strong, but depleted lineup limits chances. Betting on sports and on the Lightning is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Blues with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Blues vs Kings you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
My top play is Under the total (6.0). Puck line lean Blues +1.5.
Pick: Under 6.0 Goals
Lean: St. Louis Blues +1.5 Puck Line
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