Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 8 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/08/2026, 12:10 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Buffalo, New York to face the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at KeyBank Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM and will be broadcast on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. For more NHL betting insights and expert predictions, be sure to check out our free NHL picks for additional daily selections.

Tampa Bay Lightning Trying to Stop Recent Slide

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this matchup with a solid 38-18-4 overall record and a respectable 19-8-4 record on the road this season. However, Tampa Bay has struggled in recent games and is looking to turn things around. The Lightning recently lost to Winnipeg 4-1, Minnesota 5-1, Buffalo 6-2, and Carolina 5-4, but did get in the win column with a 4-2 victory over Toronto.

Offensively, Tampa Bay continues to be one of the stronger scoring teams in the league. The Lightning are averaging 3.45 goals per game while generating 28.4 shots per contest. Defensively they have also been fairly strong, allowing 2.67 goals per game while limiting opponents to 26.7 shots per game.

One area where Tampa Bay can be dangerous is special teams. The Lightning have scored 41 power play goals this season and are converting at a 21.8% rate with the man advantage. Their penalty kill has also been effective at 83.2%, and they have not allowed a shorthanded goal all season. If Tampa Bay can stay disciplined and capitalize on their scoring opportunities, they have the ability to bounce back in this matchup.

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Buffalo Sabres Enter Riding Five-Game Winning Streak

The Buffalo Sabres enter this game with a strong 37-19-6 record overall and have been particularly tough at home with an 18-8-3 mark at KeyBank Center. Buffalo has also been playing some of their best hockey of the season recently. The Sabres recently won over Pittsburgh 5-1, Vegas 3-2, Tampa Bay 6-2, Florida 3-2, and New Jersey 2-1.

Buffalo has been productive offensively this season as well, averaging 3.40 goals per game while generating 27.9 shots per contest. Defensively they allow 2.97 goals per game while giving up around 30.1 shots per night. While their defense has allowed a decent number of shots, they have still managed to limit scoring chances at key moments.

Another strength for Buffalo has been their aggressive penalty killing and ability to create chances while short-handed. The Sabres own an 83.4% penalty kill and have scored nine shorthanded goals this season. That ability to pressure opponents even while down a man has helped Buffalo control momentum in several recent wins.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Pick

Pick: Buffalo Sabres Moneyline

Buffalo enters this matchup with significant momentum after winning five straight games, including a convincing 6-2 win over Tampa Bay recently. The Sabres have been excellent at home and appear to be playing with confidence on both ends of the ice. While Tampa Bay has the offensive talent to compete, their recent defensive struggles make Buffalo the better value in this spot.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Total Pick

Pick: Take the Over if the total is set at 6

I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to score. Tampa Bay averages 3.45 goals per game while Buffalo averages 3.40, and their previous meeting recently produced eight total goals. With both teams capable of generating scoring chances and Tampa Bay looking to bounce back offensively, I expect a fairly open game with multiple scoring opportunities.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.