Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks and Predictions for Friday January 23 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 01/23/2026, 01:35 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning head to the United Center to take on the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, January 23, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 PM EST. This matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN. Tampa Bay enters as the road favorite at -265 on the moneyline, while Chicago is listed at +215. The total is set at 6.5 goals with the Over at -105 and the Under at -125, and the puck line shows Lightning -1.5 at +105 with the Blackhawks +1.5 at -125. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights.

Tampa Bay Aiming To Control The Pace On The Road

Tampa Bay comes into this game with a 31-13-4 overall record and has been dominant away from home at 18-4-4 on the road. Over their last five games, the Lightning have recently won over the Sharks, Stars, Penguins, and Flyers, while also recently losing to the Blues in a shootout, showing consistent form despite a demanding travel stretch.

Statistically, Tampa Bay continues to be one of the league’s most efficient teams. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game while allowing just 2.48 goals against. The Lightning generate 27.3 shots per game and give up only 26.1 shots against, keeping games under control at even strength.

Special teams remain a clear advantage for Tampa Bay. They’ve scored 31 power play goals with a 20.7% success rate, while their penalty kill sits at an elite 84.2%. That balance makes the Lightning difficult to exploit, even in high-penalty situations.

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Chicago Looking To Stay Competitive At Home

Chicago enters this matchup with a 20-22-7 overall record and an 11-12-4 mark on home ice. In their last five games, the Blackhawks have recently won over the Jets and Predators, but they’ve also recently lost to the Bruins, Flames, and Oilers, highlighting ongoing inconsistency against stronger opponents.

Offensively, Chicago is averaging 2.71 goals per game while allowing 3.08 goals against. They put up 25.2 shots per game but surrender 29.6 shots against, a trend that often forces their defense and goaltending to absorb extended pressure.

The Blackhawks’ special teams have been respectable. They’ve scored 30 power play goals with a 21.6% conversion rate, and their penalty kill checks in at 84.6%. While those numbers are solid, defensive breakdowns at even strength continue to limit their ceiling.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Pick

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+105)

Tampa Bay has a clear edge in overall talent, defensive structure, and recent form. With the Lightning playing exceptionally well on the road and Chicago struggling to limit shots, laying the puck line provides better value than the heavy moneyline price.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Total Pick

Pick: Under 6.5 goals

I’m taking the Under here because Tampa Bay excels at limiting scoring chances and Chicago often struggles to generate sustained offense against elite defensive teams. If the Lightning control the tempo as expected, this game sets up to stay below the total.

Final Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Blackhawks 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.

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