Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Toronto just went into Edmonton and beat the Oilers 7-2. Seven goals against a team that usually doesn’t give up that kind of beating at home. Now the Maple Leafs head down to Calgary, where the Flames have been having all sorts of problems keeping the puck out of their own net. This looks like a pretty good spot for Toronto. The Leafs have been scoring, their power play has been dangerous, and Calgary is giving up more than four goals a night. I’m not saying the Flames can’t win at home, but they’re going to have to defend a whole lot better than they have so far.
Toronto visits Calgary at Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday, October 26, 2026. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET, with coverage on SN+ in Canada and ESPN+ in the United States. The betting market isn’t firmly established yet, so my preferred plays are Toronto moneyline at -145 or better and Over 5.5 goals at -125 or better. Make sure you check out all of our free NHL picks to be ready for the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs Are Finding Their Offense
Toronto is 7-4-2 after Saturday’s 7-2 win in Edmonton. The Maple Leafs have been a little inconsistent, but they’ve shown they can score in bunches. They’re 2-1-1 on the road, and the Edmonton game was a pretty good example of what happens when their offense gets rolling. Toronto didn’t just sneak past the Oilers. It put seven goals on the board and made a statement. The Leafs have been scoring more than three goals per game, and now they get a Calgary team that’s been struggling defensively. That’s a matchup Toronto should be able to exploit.
The Maple Leafs are averaging about 3.4 goals while allowing just over three. Their power play has been converting around 27.5%, which is a major advantage against a Calgary team that hasn’t been particularly disciplined. Toronto has also been generating more high-danger chances than the Flames, and that’s important because Calgary’s goaltending has been under constant pressure. The Leafs don’t need to rely entirely on outside shots. They can create traffic in front of the net and get second chances. Calgary has been giving up too many quality opportunities, and Toronto has the finishers to make those mistakes expensive.
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Toronto has been getting strong production from its top offensive players, and the seven-goal night in Edmonton showed how dangerous the lineup can be when things click. The Leafs are dealing with some injuries, though. John Tavares is out with a lower-body problem, Max Domi has a back injury, and Chris Tanev is sidelined with an upper-body issue. Dakota Joshua, Miles Wood, and several other players have also been dealing with injuries. That’s a lot of missing depth, but Toronto has still found ways to score. The projected goaltender is Sergei Bobrovsky, although that assignment needs confirmation. If he gets the start, the Leafs should have a reasonable advantage in net.
Calgary Flames Have to Stop Giving Up Easy Goals
Calgary is 4-6-0 after a rough opening stretch. The Flames have won two of their five home games, but they haven’t been particularly reliable at Scotiabank Saddledome. The biggest problem has been defense. Calgary has been allowing more than four goals per game, and that’s a terrible number heading into a matchup with a Toronto team that just scored seven. The Flames have had some good moments, but they haven’t been able to put together enough complete games. When they fall behind, they don’t have the offensive firepower to chase down big deficits.
Calgary is averaging a little over two goals per game, which puts it near the bottom of the league. The Flames have been getting shots on net, but they aren’t converting enough of them. Their shooting percentage has been among the worst in hockey, and that makes every defensive mistake feel twice as expensive. Toronto’s penalty kill has been excellent, so Calgary probably isn’t going to get much help on the power play either. The Flames need to create more traffic in front of the net and stop settling for shots that go straight into the goalie’s chest. They also have to protect their own goaltender better. Giving Toronto a steady diet of high-danger chances is asking for another ugly night.
Calgary has been getting some offensive production from its younger players, but the lineup is missing important pieces. Jonathan Huberdeau is out with a hip injury, Samuel Honzek has a lower-body problem, and Mikael Backlund has been dealing with an upper-body issue. Those absences hurt a team that was already struggling to score. Dustin Wolf is the projected starter in goal, and he’s going to need a much better defensive effort in front of him. Toronto has too much offensive ability for Calgary to keep giving up odd-man rushes and second chances. The Flames have to make this a physical, lower-scoring game if they want a chance.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks and Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline — Take -145 or Better
I’ll take Toronto at -145 or better. The Leafs just scored seven in Edmonton, and Calgary is allowing more than four goals per game. That’s a pretty straightforward matchup advantage. Toronto has a better power play, more scoring depth, and enough offensive talent to take advantage of Calgary’s defensive mistakes. The Flames could make this interesting if Wolf has a strong night and Toronto gets careless after that big win over Edmonton. That’s the risk. But Calgary hasn’t shown it can consistently keep opponents off the scoreboard, and I don’t see a good reason to expect that to change against Toronto. Give me the Maple Leafs at a reasonable price.
Over 5.5 Goals — Take -125 or Better
I’m going over 5.5 if the price is -125 or better. Toronto has been scoring more than three goals per game, Calgary is giving up more than four, and the Leafs just put seven on Edmonton. The Flames haven’t been scoring much, but they should be able to contribute a couple against a Toronto team that’s allowing just over three per night. Calgary’s defensive problems are the main reason I like this bet. The Leafs could get four goals on their own if the Flames keep giving up quality chances. The danger is Calgary’s offense disappearing again and Toronto winning something like 4-1. But I think the Flames get enough to push this over. A 4-2 or 5-2 Toronto win makes sense.
Final Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline at -145 or better and Over 5.5 Goals at -125 or better
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