Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 4 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/04/2026, 01:45 AM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to Newark to take on the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+. New Jersey is priced at -115 on the moneyline, while Toronto comes back at -105, and the total is set at 5.5 goals (with Toronto +1.5 at -265 and New Jersey -1.5 at +215). For more daily matchups and angles, be sure to check out our free NHL picks.

Toronto’s Road Test: Leafs Look to Flip the Script

Toronto comes into this one with a 27-24-10 overall record and an 11-14-3 mark on the road. Over the last five, the Leafs have recently lost to Philadelphia (3-2 in a shootout), Ottawa (5-2), Florida (5-1), and Tampa Bay (4-2), while also picking up a win over Edmonton (5-2) in that stretch.

From a team-stat standpoint, Toronto is scoring 3.18 goals per game but giving up 3.43 goals per game. The Leafs are averaging 27.5 shots per game while allowing 31.8 shots against per night, which helps explain why they’ve been dealing with higher-event games and have had to chase offense more often than they’d like.

Where Toronto can still create separation is special teams. The Leafs have 28 power-play goals and a 19.6% power-play rate, while the penalty kill has been a steadier piece at 83.1%. If Toronto can keep New Jersey from living on rush chances and instead force more set-zone play, that penalty kill becomes a real stabilizer.

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Newark Noise: Devils Try to Build on Momentum

New Jersey enters Wednesday at 30-29-2 overall and 14-13-2 at home. In the last five games, the Devils have recently beaten Florida (5-1) and St. Louis (3-1), while also losing to Pittsburgh (4-1), Buffalo (2-1), and the Islanders (3-1).

Looking at the numbers, New Jersey is scoring 2.47 goals per game and allowing 3.03 goals per game. The Devils generate 29.4 shots per game and allow 27.9 shots against, which is generally a healthier profile than Toronto’s in terms of shot share and defensive workload.

The Devils’ best “swing” factor is their ability to pressure with the man advantage and to create short-handed disruption. New Jersey has 31 power-play goals with a 20.3% power-play rate, and they’ve also produced 4 short-handed goals while allowing zero short-handed goals against. If New Jersey’s special teams can win that battle, the Devils have a clean path to controlling the game state at home.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils Pick

Pick: New Jersey Devils ML (-115)

New Jersey gets the nod for me here because the Devils have been the better home team than Toronto has been on the road, and the underlying shot profile tilts their way. Toronto’s offense can absolutely travel, but the Leafs have been allowing too many shots and too many goals (3.43 per game) to trust them comfortably at this price in a road spot. With New Jersey coming off a confidence-building win and playing in a building where they can dictate matchups, I’m backing the Devils to edge this one.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils Total Pick

Pick: Over 5.5 (-125)

I’m leaning over because both teams have clear pathways to offense: Toronto can finish when chances open up, and New Jersey creates enough volume to generate second looks. The Leafs’ defensive numbers (3.43 goals allowed per game and 31.8 shots allowed) keep pulling games toward higher totals, and a 5.5 number leaves room for this to land 4-2 or 3-3 late. I’m expecting chances at both ends, and I’ll ride the over.

Final Score Prediction: Devils 4, Maple Leafs 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.