Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 5 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/05/2026, 02:00 AM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to face the New York Rangers on Thursday March 5, 2026 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline, total, or puck line. Be sure to also check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights and predictions.

Maple Leafs Searching for Momentum on the Road

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this matchup with a 27-24-10 record on the season and have struggled away from home with an 11-14-3 road record. Toronto has dropped four of their last five games, recently losing to the Philadelphia Flyers in a 3-2 shootout, losing to the Ottawa Senators 5-2, losing to the Florida Panthers 5-1, and losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2. Their lone win in that span came recently on the road over the Edmonton Oilers by a 5-2 score.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs average 3.18 goals per game while generating 27.5 shots per contest. Defensively the team has struggled, allowing 3.43 goals per game and giving up 31.8 shots per night. Toronto’s special teams have been respectable with 28 power play goals and a 19.6% conversion rate.

One aspect that has helped the Maple Leafs remain competitive is their penalty killing unit, which has been strong at 83.1%. Toronto has also avoided giving up short-handed goals this season, which highlights a disciplined power play structure even if the defensive zone play has been inconsistent.

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Rangers Hoping Home Ice Helps Turn Things Around

The New York Rangers enter this contest with a 23-29-8 overall record and have struggled significantly at Madison Square Garden with a 7-15-6 home record. The Rangers have also had difficulty closing out games recently, recently losing to the Columbus Blue Jackets 5-4 in overtime, losing to the Philadelphia Flyers 3-2 in overtime, losing to the Carolina Hurricanes 2-0, and losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-5. Their only recent win came over Pittsburgh in a 3-2 shootout victory.

The Rangers are averaging 2.62 goals per game while generating 25.6 shots per contest offensively. Defensively they are allowing 3.17 goals per game while opponents are averaging 28.8 shots per game against them. The offense has struggled to consistently produce, which has been a major factor in their record.

One area where the Rangers have found success is their power play, which has produced 33 goals and is converting at a strong 22.4% rate. If New York hopes to compete with Toronto’s offense, capitalizing on power play opportunities could be a key factor in this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers Pick

Maple Leafs vs Rangers Pick

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline

Toronto may be struggling lately, but they still possess a significantly stronger offensive attack compared to the Rangers. The Maple Leafs generate more scoring chances and have the ability to produce multiple goals in quick bursts. New York has struggled defensively and has had trouble protecting leads, especially at home this season. Given Toronto’s offensive edge and the Rangers’ inconsistency, the Maple Leafs appear to be the stronger side in this matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers Total Pick

Pick: Take the Over

I like the over in this game because both teams have shown defensive weaknesses throughout the season. Toronto is allowing over three goals per game while the Rangers are not far behind. With both teams capable of scoring on the power play and with neither defense playing particularly well lately, I expect this game to open up offensively.

Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs 4, Rangers 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.