Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026
Seattle has been winning games, but I don’t particularly like the matchup with Toronto. The Kraken have allowed 42 goals in twelve games, and now they’re getting a Maple Leafs team that’s been scoring more than four a night lately. That’s a tough way to spend Wednesday evening. Toronto has injuries, no question, and its defense hasn’t exactly been perfect. But when I look at the scoring options on both sides, I think the Leafs have a better chance to take over this game.
Toronto visits Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on Wednesday, October 28. Puck drop is at 10:00 PM ET. The Maple Leafs are playing their second game of a western trip, while Seattle is trying to build on a solid start. I’m taking Toronto on the moneyline and Over 6.5 goals, with both as betting targets until live prices are confirmed. Be ready for the entire NBA season with our free NHL picks.
Toronto Maple Leafs Have Been Scoring Plenty
Toronto is 7-5-2 overall and 3-1-1 on the road. The Maple Leafs haven’t been perfect, but they’ve been finding ways to score. Over their last ten games, they’re averaging 4.1 goals per night. That’s the kind of offense that can cover up a lot of defensive mistakes. Seattle has been giving up chances, and Toronto has the players to make those chances count. The Leafs don’t need to dominate the whole game to put four goals on the board.
Toronto has scored 50 goals in fourteen games, better than 3.5 per night. The defense has been allowing around three per game lately, so this isn’t a team that’s winning every night with shutdown hockey. The Maple Leafs have also been taking too many penalties, averaging more than ten penalty minutes per game. That’s something Seattle could exploit. But Toronto’s ability to score at even strength and on the power play makes it dangerous, especially against a Kraken team allowing 3.5 goals per game.
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Auston Matthews has nine goals and eleven assists for 20 points. William Nylander has been producing as well, with six goals and seven assists over his last ten games. Those are the two players Seattle has to keep track of. Toronto is missing John Tavares, Max Domi and Dakota Joshua up front, while Chris Tanev and Nick Blankenburg are among the defensive injuries. That’s a lot of missing depth, and it could make the Leafs vulnerable in their own zone. But Matthews and Nylander give Toronto enough offense to win games even when the lineup isn’t at full strength.
Seattle Kraken Need to Keep Toronto Out of the Dangerous Areas
Seattle is 7-4-1, including 3-2 at home. The Kraken have been playing pretty good hockey, going 6-3-1 over their last ten. They’ve scored 43 goals and allowed 42, which tells you they’re not exactly shutting everybody down. Seattle has been able to win close games, but Toronto brings more scoring talent than most of the teams the Kraken have faced. That’s where I think this matchup gets difficult.
The Kraken are averaging about 3.6 goals over their last ten games, but they’re also allowing 3.7. That’s a lot of goals at both ends. Seattle can create offense, and Toronto’s injuries give the Kraken a chance to get some good looks. But if Seattle spends too much time chasing the puck, the Leafs can turn one defensive mistake into a goal pretty quickly. The Kraken need to keep the game in front of them and avoid taking unnecessary penalties.
Kaapo Kakko has two goals and eight assists for ten points, and Frederick Gaudreau has scored five goals over his last ten games. Those are useful contributions, but Seattle is missing some important players. Jared McCann is out with a lower-body injury, while Ryan Lindgren is sidelined on defense. Jake O’Brien and Jacob Melanson are also unavailable. McCann’s absence hurts the scoring depth, and Lindgren’s injury makes it harder to defend Toronto’s top forwards. Seattle still has enough offense to compete, but I don’t like its chances of keeping Matthews and Nylander quiet all night.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken Picks and Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
I’m taking Toronto to win. Seattle has been playing well, but the Kraken have allowed nearly as many goals as they’ve scored. That’s not a great matchup against Matthews and Nylander. Toronto has been averaging more than four goals over its last ten games, and I think the Leafs will find enough scoring chances Wednesday. The injuries are the obvious concern. Toronto is missing several forwards and defensemen, and Seattle could take advantage of that if the Leafs start turning the puck over. But I trust Toronto’s top-end scoring more than Seattle’s ability to shut it down. Give me the Maple Leafs.
Over 6.5 Goals — Target Total
I’ll take Over 6.5. Seattle has been averaging 3.6 goals and allowing 3.7 over its last ten. Toronto has been scoring 4.1 over the same stretch. That’s a pretty good setup for a game with seven or eight goals. Both teams have injuries that could hurt their defensive play, and neither one has been particularly good at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. The risk is a strong goaltending performance turning this into a 3-2 game. That’s always possible in hockey. But I think Toronto gets four and Seattle contributes at least three. Leafs 4-3 is my call.
Final Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline and Over 6.5 Goals (target total)
Preview prepared October 27, 2026.
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