Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday January 23 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 01/23/2026, 01:40 AM ET

The Vegas Golden Knights travel north to face the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Friday, January 23, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 PM EST. This matchup will be televised on ESPN+ and Scripps Sports. The moneyline lists both the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights at -110, while the total is set at 5.5 goals with the Over priced at -142 and the Under at +120. The puck line shows Vegas -1.5 at +205 and Toronto +1.5 at -250. Make sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights.

Vegas Looking To Stay Hot On The Road

Vegas enters this matchup with a 24-12-12 overall record and has been strong away from home at 12-5-6 on the road. Over their last five games, the Golden Knights have recently lost to the Flyers, but they’ve also recently won over the Predators, Maple Leafs, Kings, and Sharks, showing consistent scoring and resilience in tight spots.

From a statistical standpoint, Vegas is averaging 3.33 goals per game while allowing 2.96 goals against. They generate 29 shots per game and give up just 24.6 shots against, highlighting their ability to control possession and limit high-quality chances defensively.

Special teams continue to be a major strength for the Golden Knights. They’ve scored 39 power play goals with a strong 26.5% power play percentage, while their penalty kill sits at a solid 81.4%. That efficiency gives Vegas an edge in games where penalties play a factor.

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Toronto Searching For Defensive Stability At Home

Toronto comes into this contest with a 24-17-9 overall record and a solid 16-6-6 mark at home. In their last five games, the Maple Leafs have recently lost to the Red Wings, Wild, Golden Knights, and Mammoth, while also recently winning over the Jets in overtime, pointing to some inconsistency against quality competition.

Offensively, Toronto is producing 3.32 goals per game but is giving up 3.3 goals against, nearly an even split that reflects their up-and-down performances. They average 27.2 shots per game but allow 31.7 shots against, which has put extra pressure on their goaltending.

On special teams, the Maple Leafs have scored 21 power play goals with a 16.9% conversion rate. Their penalty kill has been more reliable at 83.3%, and they’ve also chipped in three shorthanded goals, though defensive lapses at even strength remain a concern.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs Pick

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline (-110)

Vegas has already shown they can beat Toronto recently and enters this matchup playing better overall hockey. The Golden Knights’ stronger defensive numbers, shot suppression, and elite power play give them the edge in what projects to be another close game. At near even odds, Vegas offers better value given their recent form and consistency.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs Total Pick

Pick: Over 5.5 goals

I’m backing the Over in this matchup because both teams average over three goals per game and Toronto continues to allow a high volume of shots. With Vegas’ power play operating at an elite level and recent meetings producing high-scoring results, this game sets up well for goals on both sides.

Final Score Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Maple Leafs 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.

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