Iraq vs. Norway Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, June 16, 2026

By: Garrett Beaverson Published 06/15/2026, 10:44 PM ET

Group I's second fixture of the day closes out Tuesday's World Cup slate at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, as Iraq and Norway kick off at 6:00 PM ET. Both nations are returning to the World Cup after extended absences Iraq for the first time since 1986, Norway for the first time since 1998 and the result here could go a long way toward deciding who claims the second automatic qualifying spot behind France. Read on to find out which team makes the stronger statement in our Iraq vs. Norway prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!

Norway are installed as heavy favorites at -460 across books, with Iraq available at +1300 and the draw priced at +600.

Norway: Haaland's World Cup Has Finally Arrived

Norway return to the World Cup after a 28-year absence, and the announcement of their qualification came via a pre-recorded video message from King Harald V himself, a moment that tells you everything about what this tournament means to a football nation that spent years watching its greatest-ever player compete on the biggest stages in club football while remaining absent from the global stage.

Ståle Solbakken's side did not merely qualify, they demolished the European competition, going eight wins from eight in UEFA qualifying, scoring 37 goals and conceding just five. That campaign included a 3-0 dismantling of Italy in Oslo and a thumping 4-1 victory at the San Siro.

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Everything starts with Erling Haaland. At 25, he arrives at his first major tournament as Norway's all-time top scorer with 55 international goals, 16 of which came in qualifying alone, more than double the next-best total in Europe. Nobody in world football hits harder inside the penalty box, and facing an Iraq defensive structure built on organization rather than world-class personnel is precisely the kind of opponent he has routinely punished all his career. The concern heading into this opener is Martin Ødegaard's fitness, Norway's captain suffered multiple injuries this season and missed their March 2026 friendlies, and a fully sharp Ødegaard is the difference between a group-stage exit and a knockout-round run.

Behind Haaland and Ødegaard, Atlético Madrid's Alexander Sørloth, RB Leipzig's Antonio Nusa, and Crystal Palace's Jørgen Strand Larsen offer further attacking firepower, making this one of the most dangerously deep forward lines at the entire tournament.

Iraq: 40 Years in the Wilderness

Iraq's qualification for the 2026 World Cup is one of the most remarkable stories of the entire tournament, a nation that has endured the Gulf War, the 2003 invasion, years of sectarian violence, and the fight against ISIS, returning to the global stage for the first time in four decades. They secured their place as the 48th and final team to qualify, defeating Bolivia 2-1 in the intercontinental playoff in Monterrey, a result sealed by goals from Ali Al-Hamadi and top scorer Aymen Hussein, who netted the winner from close range in the 53rd minute.

Aymen Hussein was Iraq's top scorer across Asian qualifying with eight goals, and Ali Al-Hamadi, who scored the playoff opener against Bolivia, became the first Iraqi player ever to feature in the Premier League, having played for Ipswich Town last season. Coach Graham Arnold, who famously guided Australia to the Round of 16 at Qatar 2022, was appointed to bring that same experience of navigating a difficult qualifying campaign and overachieving at tournament level. Captain Jalal Hassan, 35, with 100 international caps, wears the armband in what will surely be the defining moment of his career.

The honest assessment is that Iraq are expected to finish bottom of this group, but this is a team that has defied the odds for two years straight, and a first-ever World Cup win against Norway would send a nation of 46 million people into celebration. Arnold's side will sit deep, frustrate, and look to exploit set pieces and transitions through Hussein's movement, a blueprint that has produced shock results at this tournament before.

Iraq vs. Norway Picks

Match Result Pick: Norway -1.5

The price is brutal, but the logic is airtight. This is the night Haaland gets his World Cup debut, and the bookmakers, along with common sense, expect him to make it count. Iraq are an emotionally charged, tactically organized underdog, but Haaland and Sørloth attacking a defensive unit built from the Iraqi domestic league and lower European leagues is a fundamental mismatch. Norway breezed past Italy home and away in qualifying. Iraq snuck past Bolivia with a last-minute assembly process hampered by regional conflict. The gap is real. Stake small given the price and take Norway to win.

Over/Under Pick: Over 3 Goals

The goals market has Over 3 at -102, making it the sharper side of the line, and it's easy to see why. Norway scored 37 goals in eight qualifying matches, better than four per game, and face an Iraqi backline with no World Cup experience whatsoever. Arnold will set up defensively, but Haaland's movement is nearly impossible to suppress for 90 minutes, Ødegaard will pick passes through Iraq's mid-block, and Nusa and Strand Larsen can exploit the wide channels. Expect Norway to put at least three past a well-meaning but outmatched Iraqi defense. Take the Over 3 goals.