Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 18 2025
The bantamweight division lights up at UFC Fight Night 262 on October 18, 2025, as Cody Gibson takes on Aoriqileng in a prelim bout at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. This matchup pits Gibson's grinding wrestling (2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes) against Aoriqileng's explosive striking (4.89 significant strikes per minute), promising a stylistic clash that could steal the show. With Gibson's relentless pressure meeting Aoriqileng's knockout power, bettors have a goldmine of opportunities in moneylines, props, and totals. For sharp insights and data-driven picks, check out our UFC Picks to turn this fight into your next big win.
Fight Overview
Cody Gibson, a 38-year-old American veteran, brings a 20-10 record (2-5 UFC) into this contest, his experience forged through wars in regional circuits and the UFC. Known for his wrestling-heavy style, Gibson's heart and pace have kept him competitive despite recent setbacks. Aoriqileng, "The Mongolian Murderer," is a 32-year-old Chinese striker with a 25-12 record (3-3 UFC), riding momentum from a knockout-heavy run that showcases his raw power. This prelim bout, set for three rounds, is a proving ground: Gibson aims to rebound from a 1-3 UFC stretch, while Aoriqileng looks to cement his place in the 135-pound division. The New Orleans crowd will amplify the stakes, with every takedown and power shot drawing roars.
Tale of the Tape
| Category | Cody Gibson | Aoriqileng |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 32 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 71 inches | 69 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 20-10 (2-5 UFC) | 25-12 (3-3 UFC) |
| UFC Ranking | Unranked | Unranked |
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Stance Advantage | Wrestling pressure | Striking power |
| Career Finish % | 65% | 72% |
Gibson's 2-inch reach edge (71 vs. 69 inches) aids his jab (1.12 per minute), while Aoriqileng's compact 5'7" frame boosts 1.15x knockout power (UFC Stats). Gibson's 38 years suggest wear but also experience (30 pro fights vs. Aoriqileng's 37). Aoriqileng's 72% finish rate (18 KOs) edges Gibson's 65% (13 finishes), setting up a striker vs. grappler classic.
Fighter Stats and Analysis
Cody Gibson
- Striking: Lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy, absorbing 4.12 (48% defense). His +0.34 differential wins 68% of striking exchanges when takedowns land.
- Grappling: 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes (52% accuracy), with 2:45 control time. Submission attempts (0.8 per fight) include guillotines (33% success).
- Recent Performance: 1-3 in last four UFC fights: loss to Miles Johns (decision, June 2025), win over Chad Anheliger (submission, December 2024), losses to Brian Kelleher and Alatengheili. Wrestling output up 10% since 2024.
- Strengths: Cardio (no fade in three rounds), takedown chains (68% success vs. strikers), durability (never KO’d in UFC).
- Weaknesses: Striking defense (48% allows 4.12/minute), vulnerable to power (absorbed +22 vs. Johns).
Gibson's grinding style thrives in scrambles, winning 72% of rounds with >2:00 control. His 71-inch reach helps clinch entries, but Aoriqileng's 1.89 power shots per minute test his 48% defense. Psychological edge: Gibson's "never quit" mentality (78% comeback rate after losing Round 1) could counter Aoriqileng's early blitz.
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Aoriqileng
- Striking: Lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy, absorbing 3.56 (55% defense). +1.33 differential wins 75% of stand-up rounds.
- Grappling: 0.89 takedowns per fight (40% accuracy), minimal control (0:45). Takedown defense 65%, vulnerable to chains (50% stuffed).
- Recent Performance: 2-1 in last three: KO over Johnny Munoz (April 2025), decision loss to Brady Hiestand (November 2024), TKO over Vinicius Salvador (July 2024). KO power up 15% since 2023.
- Strengths: Knockout power (3 UFC KOs), striking accuracy (50%), early aggression (Round 1 +1.89 differential).
- Weaknesses: Takedown defense (65% allows 1.45 lands), cardio fade (Round 3 output drops 18% if grounded).
Aoriqileng’s power (1.15x KO leverage) targets Gibson’s 48% defense, but his 65% takedown defense faces Gibson’s 2.34 attempts. His "Mongolian Murderer" intensity wins 80% of early exchanges, but control time (0:45) limits late surges.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Gibson +130 (43.5% implied), Aoriqileng -155 (60.8% implied).
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 rounds (-140, 58.3%), Under 2.5 (+115, 46.5%).
- Props: Aoriqileng by KO/TKO (+180), Gibson by Decision (+250), Fight Goes Distance (-110).
Line opened at Aoriqileng -140, Gibson +120, with public money (65%) on Aoriqileng’s KO threat. Sharps lean Gibson’s wrestling (55% of sharp bets). Over 2.5 steady at -140, reflecting Gibson’s durability (70% decision rate).
Prediction and Best Bets
This bantamweight clash hinges on Gibson’s wrestling vs. Aoriqileng’s power. Gibson’s 2.34 takedowns project 1.52 lands (52% vs. Aoriqileng’s 65% defense), securing 2:45 control to blunt early KOs. Aoriqileng’s 4.89 strikes/minute face Gibson’s 48% defense, landing 3.92/minute—below KO threshold (4.5). Gibson’s cardio and 78% comeback rate counter Aoriqileng’s -18% Round 3 fade. Expect Gibson to grind a decision, stealing Rounds 2-3.
Prediction: Cody Gibson wins via unanimous decision (29-28 x3), using wrestling to outlast Aoriqileng’s early blitz.
Best Bets:
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- Gibson Moneyline (+130): 58% true probability vs. 43.5% implied = +14.5% EV. Stake 3 units.
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-140): 65% true vs. 58.3% implied = +6.7% EV. Stake 3 units.
- Gibson by Decision (+250): 45% true vs. 28.6% implied = +16.4% EV. Stake 2 units.
