Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday July 28 2026
Tuesday night's WNBA predictions slate features the Connecticut Sun traveling to face the Washington Mystics at 7:30 p.m. ET, with Washington looking to strengthen its position in the Eastern Conference while Connecticut attempts to end a two-game losing streak. The Mystics enter at 14-12 overall and 6-6 at home, while the Sun are 7-20 with a difficult 3-10 record on the road. With Washington favored by 6.5 points and the total settled at 158.5, this Eastern Conference clash offers a clear angle heading into tip-off.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Mystics -6.5
- Total Pick: Under 158.5
- Projected Final Score: Mystics 83, Sun 74
Odds and Line Movement
Washington is currently favored by 6.5 points after opening at -4.5, and the Mystics sit at -266 on the moneyline. The total has climbed from 156.5 to 158.5 over the last several days. Below is a breakdown of how the spread, total and public betting percentages have moved since 07/24.
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Connecticut | Washington | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:11:21AM | 6½-108 | -6½-112 | WAS 52%, 52% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Connecticut | Washington | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:11:21AM | 6½-108 | -6½-112 | WAS 52%, 52% |
| 07/28 | 09:11:21AM | 6½-108 | -6½-112 | WAS 52%, 52% |
| 07/28 | 07:47:40AM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 52%, 55% |
| 07/28 | 04:02:10AM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 81%, 71% |
| 07/28 | 02:14:30AM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 81%, 77% |
| 07/28 | 02:14:30AM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 80%, 75% |
| 07/27 | 04:37:40PM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 77%, 78% |
| 07/27 | 04:37:40PM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 59%, 60% |
| 07/27 | 04:37:40PM | 6½-112 | -6½-108 | WAS 59%, 60% |
| 07/27 | 04:36:10PM | 5½-107 | -5½-113 | WAS 59%, 60% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 89%, 50% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 88%, 67% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 91%, 67% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 92%, 67% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 93%, 67% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 5½-110 | -5½-110 | WAS 91%, 67% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | WAS 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | WAS 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | WAS 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | WAS 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | WAS 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 93%, 94% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 93%, 91% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 89%, 94% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 89%, 94% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 94%, 93% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 87%, 90% |
| 07/24 | 11:30:47PM | 5½-108 | -5½-111 | CONN 90%, 89% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:11:21AM | 158½o-106 | 158½u-114 | O50%, O70% |
| 07/28 | 07:47:40AM | 157½o-115 | 157½u-105 | O50%, O70% |
| 07/28 | 03:38:39AM | 157½o-109 | 157½u-111 | U60%, O83% |
| 07/28 | 02:14:30AM | 157½o-104 | 157½u-116 | U60%, O83% |
| 07/27 | 04:37:40PM | 156½o-112 | 156½u-108 | U75%, O80% |
| 07/27 | 04:36:10PM | 156½o-108 | 156½u-112 | U75%, O80% |
| 07/27 | 04:14:30PM | 157½o-106 | 157½u-114 | U75%, O80% |
| 07/26 | 08:16:09PM | 156½o-108 | 156½u-112 | O88%, U67% |
| 07/24 | 07:58:05AM | 156½o-110 | 156½u-109 | U94%, O50% |
| 07/23 | 09:35:35AM | 157½o-108 | 157½u-112 | O90%, O92% |
| 07/23 | 09:29:25AM | 156½o-116 | 156½u-104 | O90%, O89% |
Sun vs Mystics Key Matchups and Game Preview
Connecticut's Recent Struggles
Connecticut has gone 2-3 over its last five games, defeating Phoenix 96-83 and Portland 90-87 before losing consecutive road contests to Phoenix and Indiana. The Sun's most recent performance was especially concerning, as they allowed 123 points in a 35-point loss to the Fever.
Washington's Winning Form
Washington has won three of its last five, including back-to-back victories over Golden State and Las Vegas, with the Mystics scoring 100 points in their latest outing.
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Season Series Split
The season series is tied 1-1, and both previous meetings were played in Connecticut. Washington won the first matchup 88-81 before the Sun answered with a 68-57 victory nine days later.
Mystics Statistical Edge
The Mystics hold important statistical advantages entering the third meeting, averaging 80.8 points while allowing 83.1 per game, compared with Connecticut's 80.0 points scored and 87.1 allowed. Both clubs shoot 44% from the field, but Washington averages 37.0 rebounds to Connecticut's 33.1, which could create extra possessions and second-chance opportunities.
Washington's Leading Scorers
Sonia Citron leads the Mystics with 17.2 points and 3.7 assists per game, while Shakira Austin averages 9.5 rebounds and gives Washington a major interior presence.
Sun Availability Concerns
Connecticut's availability could determine whether it can remain competitive. Brittney Griner is out with a knee injury, removing an important scorer, rebounder and rim protector. Aaliyah Edwards, who leads the Sun with 9.4 points per game, is questionable with a knee issue, while guard Saniya Rivers is questionable because of an ankle injury.
Connecticut's Frontcourt Questions
If Edwards is unavailable or limited, Connecticut could struggle even more against Austin and Washington's rebounding advantage. Olivia Nelson-Ododa will need to exceed her team-leading 5.7 rebounds per game, while the Sun's guards must protect the ball and create transition chances. Connecticut averages an impressive 8.4 steals, but its defensive problems and uncertain frontcourt rotation are difficult to overlook.
Betting Trends: CONN and WAS
The spread has moved considerably over the last several days, opening at Washington -5.5 on 07/24 before climbing to as high as Washington -6.5 by Tuesday morning. Public betting was split evenly during the 07/24 window, with money shifting from a heavy 93% to 94% Connecticut backing at that time to a more even 52% to 58% split on Washington by Tuesday. On the total, the number has climbed from 156.5 on 07/23 to 158.5 by Tuesday morning, with recent updates showing a mixed public split between 50% and 83% depending on the side and update.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: CONN and WAS
- Brittney Griner is out for Connecticut with a knee injury.
- Aaliyah Edwards is questionable for the Sun with a knee issue.
- Guard Saniya Rivers is questionable for Connecticut because of an ankle injury.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa will need to exceed her team-leading rebounding numbers if Griner and Edwards are limited.
Sun vs Mystics Side and Over/Under Picks
Washington's recent form, home-court advantage and superior rebounding make the favorite the stronger side, although the elevated total offers value on a lower-scoring game.
- Side Pick: Mystics -6.5
- Total Pick: Under 158.5
Final Score Prediction
- Washington Mystics 83, Connecticut Sun 74
How to Wager On Sun vs Mystics
Bettors weighing Washington's spread and the Under in this Eastern Conference matchup have a few resources to compare projections before placing a wager. For a data-driven cross-check on Washington's rebounding and defensive edge, exploring AI picks can help validate the gap between these two clubs. Bettors can also review the Dimers review for another projection angle on Sun vs Mystics, or check the Oddible review for an additional resource to weigh against Washington's spread and the Under before locking in a final decision.
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