Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Thursday May 21 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/21/2026, 12:10 AM ET

The Los Angeles Sparks head to Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona to face the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday, May 21, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET. The game will be televised on Prime Video. Phoenix enters this Western Conference matchup favored by 2.5 points with the total listed at 175.5 points. The Mercury are -125 on the moneyline while Los Angeles is +105. Both teams have struggled with consistency early in the season, making this an important opportunity for each side to gain momentum. Be sure to check out our free NBA picks at free WNBA picks.

Sparks Trying to Recover Defensively

Los Angeles enters this matchup with a 1-3 overall record and is still searching for consistency after an uneven opening stretch. The Sparks recently lost to Toronto 106-96 after defeating the same team 99-95 two days earlier. Before that, Los Angeles fell to Indiana 87-78 and Las Vegas 105-78. The recent results show a team capable of scoring points but one that has struggled to limit opponents defensively.

The Sparks are averaging 87.8 points per game while allowing 98.3 points per contest. Los Angeles has shot 49 percent from the field this season while averaging 19.0 assists and 26.5 rebounds per game. Defensively, the Sparks are averaging 8.0 steals but only 2.0 blocks.

The biggest weakness for Los Angeles has clearly been defense. Allowing 98.3 points per game has created difficult situations throughout the early season, especially against teams capable of scoring consistently. That defensive pressure will once again be tested against a Phoenix team that has already shown explosive offensive stretches.

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Mercury Hoping to Regain Rhythm at Home

Phoenix enters the contest with a 2-3 overall record and recently lost 98-90 against Toronto. Before that defeat, the Mercury picked up a strong 91-83 victory over Chicago but lost close games against Minnesota and Golden State. Phoenix also owns an impressive 99-66 win over Las Vegas earlier this season, showing the offensive upside this group can reach when shots are falling.

The Mercury are averaging 88.6 points per game while allowing 86.0 points per contest. Phoenix is shooting 44 percent from the field while averaging 32.8 rebounds and 19.0 assists per game. Defensively, the Mercury are averaging 3.8 blocks and 7.0 steals.

A key strength for Phoenix has been overall balance. The Mercury are scoring nearly 89 points per game while also holding opponents to 86.0 points per contest. Compared to Los Angeles, Phoenix has been far more reliable defensively, and that could become a major advantage in this matchup.

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Pick

Pick: Phoenix Mercury -2.5

Phoenix has been the more balanced team through the opening portion of the season. While both teams can score, the Mercury have allowed significantly fewer points than Los Angeles. The Sparks are giving up 98.3 points per game, and that defensive inconsistency makes Phoenix the stronger choice at home.

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick

Pick: Over 175.5

I like the over because both teams have consistently played in high-scoring games recently. Los Angeles has allowed at least 95 points in three of its four games, while Phoenix has scored 90 or more points in three of its five contests. With both offenses capable of producing points and the Sparks struggling defensively, this total looks reachable.

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 92 – Los Angeles Sparks 87

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.