Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury Picks and Predictions for Sunday, September 28, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 09/27/2025, 10:58 PM ET

The Minnesota Lynx visit the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday at PHX Arena. 6:00 PM ET on ESPN. Phoenix won Game 3, 84–76, and leads the series 2–1. Shot from three-point territory and win, with our WNBA Picks.

Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Lynx won Game 1 at home but have dropped the last two and are on the brink of elimination. The Lynx scored only 76 points in Friday’s loss and gave up a late run that sealed their fate. Napheesa Collier is listed as a game-time decision, but is expected to play. Collier leads the team with averages of 20.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in the postseason. Her presence changes how the Lynx run the offense.

Kayla McBride has been a steady scorer, averaging 17.8 points in the playoffs while shooting well from deep. Courtney Williams has added 14.8 points and 6.0 assists per game, giving the Lynx another option in the backcourt. Minnesota has struggled with turnovers and cold stretches in the second half, problems they must fix to extend the series.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix has taken control with two straight wins, including an overtime win on Tuesday and Friday’s home victory. Satou Sabally has been an important scorer at 16.3 points per game, and Kahleah Copper adds another strong perimeter option. Alyssa Thomas has led the team in the postseason with averages of 17.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game.

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The Mercury defense has been the difference, holding the Lynx under 80 points in both wins. The Phoenix forced tough shots and got easy points in transition. Phoenix also has no injuries and a full set of reserves. With late-game execution and balanced scoring, the Phoenix have shown they can win tight games.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction

Phoenix has been sharper in the last two games, with Thomas controlling the floor and role players stepping up. Minnesota needs Collier healthy and strong three-point shooting to force a Game 5. Still, Phoenix has defended better and looks more reliable late in games. Playing at home, the Mercury will finish the series. Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury wins and covers ATS 81-74.