Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Tuesday May 12 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/12/2026, 12:15 AM ET

The Minnesota Lynx visit the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM with television coverage on Arizona’s Family 3TV and Victory+. Phoenix enters the matchup as a 3.5-point home favorite with a moneyline of -175, while Minnesota is listed at +145. The total for the matchup is set at 169.5 points. Readers searching for more betting insight should also check out free WNBA picks for additional daily analysis and predictions.

Minnesota Lynx Trying to Bounce Back Quickly

Minnesota enters this contest with a 0-1 record after recently lost to Atlanta by a narrow 91-90 final score. Before that defeat, the Lynx recently won over Toronto 73-66, recently won over Nigeria 88-79, and recently won over Washington 77-66. Minnesota also previously recently lost to Phoenix 86-81 late last season. Despite the season-opening defeat, the Lynx have remained competitive in several recent contests and nearly escaped with a road win against Atlanta.

The Lynx averaged 90.0 points per game while allowing 91.0 points against through the early season sample. Minnesota shot 50 percent from the field and averaged 25.0 rebounds along with 20.0 assists per game. Defensively, the Lynx averaged 7.0 blocks and 10.0 steals. Minnesota has shown strong activity defensively, particularly in creating turnovers and protecting the rim.

The biggest strength for Minnesota entering this matchup is defensive disruption. The Lynx averaged 10.0 steals and 7.0 blocks, both strong numbers from the provided data. Minnesota also shot 50 percent from the field in the early portion of the season, which gives the team a balanced approach offensively despite the narrow opening loss.

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Phoenix Mercury Returning Home After Split Results

Phoenix enters Tuesday night with a 1-1 record after recently lost to Golden State 95-79 on the road. Before that defeat, the Mercury recently won over Las Vegas 99-66 and recently won over Japan 86-60 during exhibition action. Phoenix also recently won over Chicago 108-104 before ending last season with a loss against Las Vegas. The Mercury have already shown the ability to put together dominant offensive performances and now return home looking to recover from the recent loss.

The Mercury averaged 89.0 points per game while allowing only 80.5 points against. Phoenix shot 49 percent from the field while averaging 30.5 rebounds and 21.5 assists per contest. Defensively, the Mercury averaged 3.5 blocks and 6.5 steals. Phoenix has played efficient basketball offensively while also maintaining solid defensive numbers early in the season.

One major advantage for Phoenix is overall defensive consistency. The Mercury are allowing only 80.5 points per game, which is notably lower than Minnesota’s 91.0 points allowed per contest. Phoenix also owns the rebounding edge with 30.5 rebounds per game, and that added possession advantage could become important in a matchup expected to stay competitive.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Pick

Pick: Phoenix Mercury -3.5

Phoenix gets the lean in this matchup because of the stronger defensive numbers and home-court advantage. The Mercury are allowing only 80.5 points per game while Minnesota is allowing 91.0 points per contest. Phoenix also recently won over Las Vegas by 33 points and has shown the ability to produce offensively while maintaining defensive control. Minnesota has remained competitive, but the Mercury’s rebounding advantage and stronger scoring margin profile make Phoenix the preferred side.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick

Pick: Under 169.5

I would take the under in this matchup because Phoenix has played solid defense through the early schedule, allowing only 80.5 points per game. Minnesota’s recent game against Atlanta finished with 181 total points, but several of the Lynx recent games before that stayed at lower totals, including 139 and 143 combined points. Phoenix also held Las Vegas to only 66 points in one of its recent wins. With both teams showing capable defensive stretches, this game looks more likely to stay below the listed total.

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 86 – Minnesota Lynx 79