New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday July 16 2026
The New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings matchup on Thursday night at College Park Center features a Dallas team riding a five-game winning streak against a New York squad dealing with significant injury concerns. Bettors looking for more games to target this week should check out these WNBA picks before finalizing any tickets.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas Wings -1.5
- Total Pick: Over 176.5
- Final Score Prediction: Dallas Wings 92, New York Liberty 87
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | New York Liberty | Dallas Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| Total | Over 176.5 (-110) | Under 176.5 (-110) |
| Public Betting | — | DAL 90% money, 86% tickets |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York Liberty | Dallas Wings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/14 | 05:21:22PM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/14 | 05:21:22PM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/14 | 05:21:22PM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/14 | 05:21:22PM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/15 | 03:35:22AM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/15 | 03:35:22AM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| 07/15 | 03:35:22AM | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-93) Wings 89%, tickets 93% |
| 07/15 | 02:58:50PM | — | DAL 92%, 88% |
| 07/15 | 03:20:35PM | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-115) |
| 07/15 | 05:09:18PM | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-108) |
| 07/15 | 05:23:35PM | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-108) |
| 07/15 | 06:12:25PM | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| 07/15 | 06:12:25PM | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| 07/16 | 01:34:50AM | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| 07/16 | 01:34:50AM | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/14 | 05:21:22PM | 175.5 (-110) | 175.5 (-110) |
| 07/15 | 02:58:50PM | — | — |
| 07/15 | 03:20:35PM | 175.5 (-110) | 175.5 (-110) |
| 07/15 | 05:23:35PM | 175.5 (-108) | 175.5 (-112) |
| 07/15 | 11:53:19PM | 176.5 (-110) | 176.5 (-110) |
Liberty vs Wings Key Matchups and Game Preview
Dallas enters this matchup at 16-8 overall and 7-3 at home after winning five consecutive games, while New York is 13-11 overall and 6-6 on the road following back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Toronto. Dallas has already defeated New York twice this season, winning 91-76 on May 24 and 88-77 on July 7, so the Wings have won both meetings by double digits heading into Thursday's rematch.
Wings' Offensive Rhythm
The statistical profiles are relatively close, with Dallas averaging 89.5 points while allowing 85.4 and New York scoring 87.8 while surrendering 84.5. Both teams shoot 46% from the field, but the Wings produce more assists and steals, which reflects an offense that has recently played with better rhythm and a defense capable of turning mistakes into transition opportunities.
Dallas' Best Creator
Paige Bueckers leads Dallas with 20.7 points and 6.3 assists per game while shooting 51.6% from the floor, giving the Wings the best all-around offensive creator in this matchup. Jessica Shepard adds a major interior advantage with 11.6 rebounds per game, including 3.3 offensive boards.
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Liberty's Star Power
New York counters with Breanna Stewart, who averages 20.4 points on 46.7% shooting, while Jonquel Jones contributes 9.3 rebounds per contest. That combination gives New York enough star power to make this more competitive than the first two meetings between these teams.
New York's Frontcourt Losses
The Liberty's injury situation is a significant concern because Satou Sabally remains out with a concussion and Leonie Fiebich is sidelined by a foot injury. Losing two versatile forwards reduces New York's defensive flexibility, wing depth and secondary scoring behind Stewart. Marine Fauthoux is also unavailable due to a coach's decision.
Dallas' Frontcourt Absence
Dallas will be without Alanna Smith because of a lower-leg injury, a meaningful absence that weakens its frontcourt rotation and could help Jones generate extra opportunities around the basket. Costanza Verona and Haley Jones are also out due to coach's decisions, although neither absence should alter the primary rotation as much as Smith's.
Betting Trends NY vs DAL
Dallas has won both meetings against New York this season by double digits, taking the first matchup 91-76 on May 24 and the second 88-77 on July 7. The Wings' five-game winning streak and superior offensive continuity have carried over into a strong home betting market, with public money and tickets both leaning heavily toward Dallas throughout the week.
Key Injuries and Things To Know NY vs DAL
New York is shorthanded with Satou Sabally out due to a concussion, Leonie Fiebich sidelined by a foot injury, and Marine Fauthoux unavailable due to a coach's decision. Dallas is missing Alanna Smith with a lower-leg injury, while Costanza Verona and Haley Jones are both out due to coach's decisions, though those absences are considered less impactful than losing Smith.
Liberty vs Wings Side and Over/Under Picks
Wings Spread Angle
New York has enough star power to make this more competitive than the first two meetings, but Dallas owns the better current form, has home-court advantage and has repeatedly exposed the Liberty's rebounding and turnover problems. The Wings' five-game winning streak and superior offensive continuity make Dallas -1.5 the preferred spread play.
Liberty Total Trends
With both teams averaging nearly 90 points and Dallas scoring at least 86 in each of its last five games, the total has moved from 175.5 up to 176.5 over the course of the week, reflecting continued confidence in a high-scoring result. Over 176.5 is the total prediction.
- Spread: Dallas Wings -1.5
- Total: Over 176.5
Final Score Prediction
Wings Final Score Outlook
Dallas' offensive continuity, home-court advantage and Bueckers' all-around creation give the Wings the edge in a game that should stay close given New York's star power at the top of its lineup. Stewart and Jones will need big performances to keep the Liberty within striking distance, but Dallas' recent form and two prior wins over New York this season support another Wings victory.
- Final Score Prediction: Dallas Wings 92, New York Liberty 87
How to Wager On Liberty vs Wings
Bettors looking to build out this matchup further have a few resources worth checking before placing a wager on Liberty vs Wings. Comparing model-based projections against the current market number can help confirm whether Dallas -1.5 and the Over 176.5 line up with broader expectations. These AI picks offer a wider look at how models are projecting this game.
Two additional tools worth reviewing for this specific matchup include the Dimers review, which breaks down simulation-based projections for games like this one, and the Oddible review, which focuses on real-time odds comparison across sportsbooks. Using these resources alongside the line movement data above can help bettors decide whether to back Dallas on the spread, take the Over, or look elsewhere on the board for this Liberty-Wings matchup.
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