New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday August 1 2026
The New York Liberty visit the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday afternoon for the third and final regular-season meeting between the teams, with New York favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 177.5. If you are searching for more value on today's slate, check out our full WNBA predictions before locking in your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Liberty -2.5
- Total Pick: Under 177.5
- Final Score Prediction: Liberty 88, Mercury 83
Odds and Line Movement
New York has held steady around the 2.5-point mark throughout the week, while the total has climbed from an opening number of 175 to 177.5 as tipoff approaches. Here is the current market followed by the full line movement for both the spread and total.
Current Odds
| Market | New York Liberty | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2½ (-110) | +2½ (-110) |
| Total | 177.5 (Over -105 / Under -115) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Phoenix | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01 | 06:29:10AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 87%, 67% |
| 08/01 | 02:14:09AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 90%, 75% |
| 08/01 | 00:43:59AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 87%, 67% |
| 08/01 | 00:43:59AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 87%, 67% |
| 07/31 | 11:45:59PM | -2½ (-105) | 2½ (-115) | NY 89%, 91% |
| 07/31 | 01:10:09PM | -1½ (-115) | 1½ (-105) | NY 89%, 94% |
| 07/31 | 01:10:09PM | -1½ (-115) | 1½ (-105) | NY 90%, 92% |
| 07/31 | 01:10:09PM | -1½ (-115) | 1½ (-105) | NY 92%, 91% |
| 07/31 | 12:40:00PM | -1½ (-115) | 1½ (-105) | NY 92%, 87% |
| 07/31 | 11:38:44AM | -1½ (-117) | 1½ (-104) | NY 87%, 93% |
| 07/31 | 09:04:39AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 90%, 89% |
| 07/31 | 09:04:39AM | -2½ (-110) | 2½ (-110) | NY 94%, 87% |
| 07/31 | 00:19:20AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) | |
| 07/31 | 00:19:20AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) | |
| 07/31 | 00:19:20AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) | |
| 07/31 | 00:19:20AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) | |
| 07/31 | 00:19:20AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01 | 06:29:10AM | 177½o-105 | 177½u-115 | O88%, O86% |
| 08/01 | 02:14:09AM | 176½o-108 | 176½u-112 | O90%, O86% |
| 08/01 | 00:43:59AM | 176½o-105 | 176½u-115 | O93%, O83% |
| 07/31 | 11:34:59PM | 175½o-115 | 175½u-105 | O92%, O80% |
| 07/31 | 11:26:29PM | 175½o-112 | 175½u-108 | O94%, O80% |
| 07/31 | 01:10:09PM | 175½o-108 | 175½u-112 | O87%, O94% |
Liberty vs Mercury Key Matchups and Game Preview
New York's Offensive Edge
New York owns the stronger offensive profile, averaging 89.7 points on 46% shooting compared with Phoenix's 83.2 points on 44%, and the Liberty also hold advantages in rebounding, assists and blocked shots.
Stewart and Jones Lead the Attack
Breanna Stewart leads New York with 21.5 points per game, while Jonquel Jones averages 9.0 rebounds and gives the Liberty a major interior presence against a Mercury team collecting only 31.6 rebounds per contest.
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Phoenix's Recent Surge
Phoenix has won three straight games, including a 91-89 victory over Golden State and a road win over Los Angeles, while New York had its three-game winning streak snapped by a 104-99 loss at Las Vegas.
Mercury's Path to an Upset
Phoenix's best path to an upset runs through Kahleah Copper, who averages 20.7 points, and Alyssa Thomas, whose 8.3 assists per game can create open looks and help the Mercury avoid becoming overly dependent on isolation scoring. Thomas' playmaking and Phoenix's average of 7.3 steals could pressure a New York team that has recently played several close games, including three consecutive victories decided by five points or fewer before the loss in Las Vegas.
Betting Trends: NY and PHX
The Liberty have controlled the season series, winning 84-74 and 75-68 in New York, with both games staying comfortably below Saturday's total. Public backing has swung between both sides throughout the week, with support for New York against the spread reaching as high as 94% at times.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: NY and PHX
Injuries are more concerning for the Liberty, as Satou Sabally remains out with a concussion and Leonie Fiebich is sidelined by a foot injury. Their absences reduce New York's wing depth, defensive versatility and lineup flexibility, potentially forcing heavier minutes on the remaining starters. Phoenix has no new rotation injury listed, with Jovana Nogic unavailable for the season for a non-injury-related reason, leaving the Mercury closer to full strength.
Liberty vs Mercury Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Liberty -2.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 177.5 (-115)
New York's edge in shooting efficiency, rebounding and frontcourt talent should allow it to generate enough second-chance opportunities and higher-quality possessions to win. Phoenix's recent defensive improvement and the low-scoring nature of the first two meetings make the under the stronger total play, especially with New York missing two useful forwards.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Liberty 88, Mercury 83
How to Wager On Liberty vs Mercury
Bettors looking to get down on Liberty vs Mercury have several tools available to help shape their picks. Our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer additional angles on the spread, total and moneyline markets for this final regular-season meeting between the two clubs.
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