Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 24 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/24/2026, 12:35 AM ET

The Phoenix Mercury travel to Gateway Center in College Park to face the Atlanta Dream on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET with coverage available on WNBA League Pass. Atlanta enters the matchup as a 5.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -225, while Phoenix comes back at +185. The total for the game is set at 166.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks

Phoenix Looking to Stop Recent Slide

The Mercury enter this matchup with a 2-4 overall record and a 1-1 mark on the road this season. Phoenix has recently lost to Los Angeles, Toronto, Minnesota, and Golden State during a difficult stretch over the last five games. The lone victory during that stretch came in a 91-83 result against Chicago. The Mercury have struggled defensively in several recent games, allowing at least 95 points in three of their last four contests.

Phoenix is averaging 88.5 points per game this season while shooting 43 percent from the field. The Mercury are also producing 32.8 rebounds and 18.7 assists per contest while adding 7.3 steals and 3.5 blocks defensively. However, the team is allowing 87.8 points per game, which has made it difficult to consistently close out games.

One positive area for Phoenix has been its offensive production. The Mercury are averaging nearly 89 points per game and continue to remain competitive offensively even during losses. However, the defense has struggled to contain opposing teams consistently, especially against stronger offenses capable of pushing the pace.

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Dream Bringing Momentum Into Home Matchup

Atlanta enters this game with a 3-1 overall record and a 1-1 mark at home. The Dream recently won over Dallas, Dallas again earlier this month, and Minnesota while narrowly recently lost to Las Vegas by one point. Atlanta has played well during the early part of the season and has already shown the ability to win close games while also producing strong defensive performances.

The Dream are averaging 84.5 points per game while allowing only 79.0 points defensively. Atlanta is shooting 43 percent from the field and has been especially strong on the glass with 42.5 rebounds per contest. The Dream also average 18.0 assists along with 4.5 blocks and 7.3 steals per game.

One of the biggest strengths for Atlanta has been rebounding and defense. The Dream are holding opponents below 80 points per game while also controlling the boards effectively. That balance has helped Atlanta remain competitive in nearly every game so far this season and could become a major factor again Sunday afternoon.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Pick

Pick: Atlanta Dream -5.5

Atlanta enters this matchup with the stronger overall record and better defensive numbers through the early part of the season. The Dream are allowing only 79.0 points per game compared to the 87.8 points allowed by Phoenix. Atlanta has also won three of its last four games while Phoenix has dropped four of its last five. I believe the Dream’s defensive consistency and rebounding edge help create separation at home in this matchup.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Total Pick

Pick: Over 166.5

I am leaning toward the over because Phoenix continues to play in higher-scoring games. The Mercury are averaging 88.5 points per game but are also allowing nearly 88 points per contest defensively. Several recent Phoenix games have pushed into high-scoring territory, including totals of 185 and 188 points in the last two outings. Atlanta has also shown the ability to contribute offensively while maintaining efficiency. This matchup feels likely to produce enough scoring opportunities to move past the posted number.

Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Dream 89 – Phoenix Mercury 81