Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Predictions for Sunday, September 21, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 09/20/2025, 03:33 PM ET

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Minnesota Lynx for Game 1 of their best-of-five semifinal series on Sunday, September 21. Tip-off is set for 5:00 PM ET on ESPN. The Mercury comes in after a 79–73 win over New York to clinch their first-round series, while the Lynx are coming off a 75–74 win at Golden State, completing a sweep of that first-round series. Win with our WNBA previews.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix won two straight behind steady play from its stars, after losing the opening game of the first-round series versus New York. Alyssa Thomas has led the way this postseason with 16.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game. Satou Sabally adds 15.7 points and 9.0 boards, plus is very active on defense. Kahleah Copper is another proven scorer for the Mercury.

In the last two wins over New York, Phoenix controlled the glass and limited second chances. The bench has given Phoenix opportunities to rest its starters as the reserves have held leads when on the court and have not lost ground when playing from behind. If Thomas keeps the ball moving and Sabally wins her matchup on the wing, Phoenix can stay within one or two possessions late and have a chance for an upset.

Minnesota Lynx Preview

Minnesota finished 34–10 and 20–2 at home, and the Lynx enter hot. Napheesa Collier has set the tone in the playoffs at 22.0 points per game while shooting 63%. Kayla McBride adds 17.5 points, and Courtney Williams has been a steady playmaker at 5.5 assists per game. The supporting group—Jessica Shepard on the boards and Alanna Smith on defense—complements the inside-out game of Collier.

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The Lynx scored 86.1 per game this season on 47.2% shooting and allowed 73.0. They won two straight to sweep the series in the first round, and have increased their defensive pressure to start the postseason. If Minnesota keeps turnovers down, cleans the glass well to start transition, and shoots like it can, the home court advantage grows even more.

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction

Both teams are in form, but Minnesota’s home record and Collier’s current play point to a Lynx win. Phoenix can hang close with Thomas’ playmaking and Sabally’s strong play at both ends, but Minnesota will answer more late in the game to win and cover.