Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction for Wednesday May 27 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/27/2026, 12:05 AM ET

The Phoenix Mercury travel to face the New York Liberty on Wednesday night at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with television coverage available on USA Net, WWOR-TV, and Liberty Live. New York enters the matchup as a 5.5-point home favorite with a moneyline of -238, while Phoenix is listed at +195. The total for the game is set at 172.5 points. Both teams come into the contest looking to snap recent losing stretches and regain momentum early in the season. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.

Mercury Searching for Consistency on the Road

Phoenix enters this matchup with a 2-5 overall record and a 1-2 road record so far this season. The Mercury have recently lost to Atlanta by a narrow 82-80 score after previously dropping games against Los Angeles and Toronto. Their only victory over the last five games came in a recent win over Chicago by an 91-83 final score. Several of the recent losses have been competitive, including the two-point defeat against Atlanta and a four-point loss against Minnesota earlier this month.

The Mercury offense has been productive despite the recent results, averaging 87.3 points per game while shooting 43 percent from the field. Phoenix has also averaged 18.0 assists and 33.3 rebounds per game while contributing 7.4 steals and 3.9 blocks defensively. However, the team has allowed 87.0 points per contest, which has created difficult situations late in close games throughout the early portion of the schedule.

One of the key concerns for Phoenix entering this game is defensive consistency. The Mercury have scored at least 80 points in every game listed over their last five outings, but they have still lost four of those contests. Their ability to stay competitive offensively has kept them within striking distance, yet allowing opponents to consistently reach high scoring totals has made it difficult to close games out successfully.

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Liberty Hoping Home Floor Sparks a Turnaround

New York comes into Wednesday’s matchup with a 3-4 overall record and a 1-3 mark at home this season. The Liberty have recently lost to Portland, Dallas, and Golden State in consecutive games after previously earning a convincing 100-82 road victory over Portland. New York also recently lost to Portland earlier in May by a narrow 98-96 score. Despite the losing streak, several games have remained competitive, and the Liberty continue to show offensive upside entering this matchup.

The Liberty are averaging 88.6 points per game while allowing 86.7 points defensively. New York has also shot 47 percent from the field, which is the stronger field goal percentage between these two teams entering the game. The Liberty have been especially effective moving the basketball with 22.6 assists per contest while also averaging 33.1 rebounds, 6.3 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game.

One of the biggest strengths for New York has been overall offensive efficiency. The Liberty are scoring nearly 89 points per game while shooting at a high percentage from the floor and creating consistent ball movement opportunities through assists. The issue has been defensive execution during the recent losing streak, as the team has allowed at least 81 points in every loss listed over the last five games.

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Picks and Prediction

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Pick

Pick: New York Liberty -5.5

New York enters this matchup with stronger offensive numbers overall, particularly in field goal percentage and assists. The Liberty are averaging 88.6 points per game while shooting 47 percent from the floor, and they should have opportunities against a Phoenix defense allowing 87.0 points per contest. Even though New York has recently lost three straight games, the Liberty have remained competitive offensively throughout that stretch. Phoenix has dropped four of its last five games overall, including multiple close losses where defensive struggles became a major factor. Based on the offensive efficiency and home-court edge provided, the lean is toward New York covering the spread.

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Total Pick

Pick: Over 172.5

I’m leaning toward the over in this matchup because both teams have consistently played in higher-scoring games recently. Phoenix is averaging 87.3 points per game while New York is averaging 88.6 points offensively. The Mercury have allowed 87.0 points per game defensively, and the Liberty have given up 86.7 points per contest. Several recent games for both teams have pushed comfortably into the upper scoring range, including Phoenix allowing 98 and 97 points in recent losses while New York recently surrendered 91 and 98 points in defeats. The offensive numbers suggest another fast-paced scoring environment.

Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 91 – Phoenix Mercury 84