Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 17, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 09/17/2025, 12:05 AM ET

The Phoenix Mercury visit the New York Liberty on Wednesday at Barclays Center for Game 2 of a best-of-three first-round series. The Liberty lead the series 1-0, after a 76-69 overtime win in Game 1 on Sunday. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. The Liberty are favored by 4.5 points, and the game total is set at 160.5. Score a hoop with our free WNBA picks.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix averaged 82.8 points per game while allowing 76.0 during the regular season. They shot 43.3% from the field and pulled down 34.7 rebounds per game. The Mercury offense is paced by Satou Sabally (16.3 points per game in the regular season), while Kahleah Copper led them with 15 points in the playoff opener. Alyssa Thomas is a big presence for Phoenix in scoring, rebounding, and playmaking.

The Mercury dropped the last four of five, including the 76–69 overtime loss to New York on Sunday. In that game, Phoenix struggled from deep, shooting just 23% from three-point territory. Still, the Mercury forced 20 turnovers and collected 12 steals, showing they can make things tough for opponents. Shooting threes better will be key against New York’s inside strength.

New York Liberty Preview

The Liberty averaged 84.4 points per game during the regular season while holding opponents to 80.3, which was a problem for New York all season. The Liberty hit 45.3% from the field and averaged 21.8 assists, showing good ball movement. Breanna Stewart led the team at 18.3 points per game but is listed as questionable. Natasha Cloud stepped up in the last game with 23 points, while Sabrina Ionescu added 16 with seven assists.

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New York has won four of its last five, including that overtime win in Phoenix. The frontcourt pairing of Stewart and Jonquel Jones has been key all season, combining scoring and rim protection. If Stewart is cleared to play, New York has the edge inside, but without her, the Liberty defense will be without one of its best.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction

This shapes up as another close contest. The Liberty’s defense and overall talent give them the advantage, especially at Barclays Center, where they are 17–5. Phoenix can hang in with pressure defense, but unless the Mercury’s outside shooting improves, it will be hard to keep up. The pick is New York to cover the number. Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty wins and covers ATS 77-70.