Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 06/28/2026, 12:20 AM ET

The Portland Fire and Washington Mystics meet at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET with coverage available on WNBA League Pass, Fox 12 Plus, and additional regional coverage. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives Portland a 28.4 percent chance to win, while Washington holds a 71.5 percent matchup predictor advantage. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.

Portland Tries to Find Its Road Rhythm

Portland enters this matchup with an 8-11 overall record and a 2-6 road record. The Fire recently lost to Chicago twice, recently won over Seattle, recently lost to Minnesota, and recently won over Dallas. That gives Portland two wins in its last five games, though the recent back-to-back losses on the road create a difficult setup heading into Washington.

The Fire are averaging 82.6 points per game while allowing 90.6 points per game. Portland is shooting 44 percent from the field while averaging 28.2 rebounds, 19.7 assists, 4.2 blocks, and 7.1 steals per game. The offensive scoring number is slightly higher than Washington’s, but the points allowed figure is the major concern.

Portland’s biggest issue is defense. Giving up 90.6 points per game creates very little margin for error, especially away from home. The Fire do have advantages in scoring, assists, blocks, and steals compared to Washington, but the gap in points allowed and rebounding is hard to overlook.

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Washington Looks to Regain Control at Home

Washington comes into this game with an 8-9 overall record and a 2-4 home record. The Mystics recently lost to Connecticut, recently lost to Minnesota, recently won over Minnesota, recently won over New York, and recently won over Connecticut. That gives Washington three wins in its last five games despite entering this matchup off back-to-back losses.

The Mystics are averaging 80.5 points per game while allowing 84.1 points per game. Washington is shooting 44 percent from the field, averaging 35.7 rebounds, 18.6 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 5.8 steals per game. The field goal percentage is even with Portland, but Washington has the clear rebounding edge.

The biggest strength for Washington is its ability to control the glass and keep opponents closer to a manageable scoring number. The Mystics average 35.7 rebounds per game compared to Portland’s 28.2, and they allow 84.1 points per game compared to Portland’s 90.6. Those two areas give Washington a strong statistical foundation in this matchup.

Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction

Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics Pick

Pick: Washington Mystics Moneyline

Washington is my pick because the Mystics have the stronger matchup predictor percentage, the better overall defensive numbers, and a major rebounding advantage. Portland scores slightly more per game, but the Fire allow 90.6 points per contest and have struggled away from home with a 2-6 road record. Washington has also won three of its last five games, giving the home team the stronger profile based on the information provided.

Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics Total Pick

Take the under if the total is set at 166.5.

I would lean under 166.5 because Washington allows 84.1 points per game and scores 80.5, which creates a projected pace close to that number. Portland’s defensive numbers are looser, but Washington’s rebounding advantage and lower points-against average make me lean toward a more controlled game.

Final Score Prediction: Washington Mystics 84 – Portland Fire 78