Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for Thursday May 21 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/21/2026, 12:05 AM ET

The Toronto Tempo visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Thursday, May 21, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET. The game will air on WNBA League Pass, Victory+, and TSN. Minnesota enters the contest favored by 6.5 points with the total sitting at 172.5 points. The Lynx are listed at -278 on the moneyline while Toronto is +225. Both teams enter this matchup with identical recent momentum after alternating wins and losses through the opening stretch of the season. Be sure to check out our free NBA picks at free WNBA picks.

Toronto Carrying Momentum Into Minneapolis

Toronto comes into this matchup with a 3-2 overall record and a 2-1 road mark. The Tempo recently defeated Phoenix 98-90 and Los Angeles 106-96 after falling to Los Angeles 99-95 earlier in the week. Toronto also picked up an 86-73 victory over Seattle but lost 68-65 against Washington. The recent results show a team capable of scoring at a high level while still working toward defensive consistency.

The Tempo are averaging 90.0 points per game while allowing 85.2 points per contest. Toronto is shooting 42 percent from the field and averaging 31.2 rebounds and 17.0 assists per game. Defensively, the Tempo are forcing turnovers effectively with 9.2 steals per game, although the team has struggled at times to consistently slow opposing offenses.

One major strength for Toronto has been offensive production. The Tempo have scored at least 95 points in three of their five games this season and are averaging 90.0 points overall. That ability to generate offense has helped offset defensive issues and kept the team competitive even in difficult road matchups.

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Minnesota Attempting to Build Home Momentum

Minnesota enters this game with a 2-2 overall record. The Lynx recently lost to Chicago 86-79 after back-to-back wins over Dallas and Phoenix. Earlier in the season, Minnesota dropped a close 91-90 game against Atlanta before defeating Toronto 73-66 on May 1. The Lynx have already shown they can win tight games, but consistency has been harder to maintain during the early portion of the schedule.

The Lynx are averaging 86.8 points per game while also allowing 86.8 points per contest. Minnesota has been extremely efficient offensively, shooting 51 percent from the field while averaging 20.0 assists and 33.5 rebounds per game. Defensively, the team is averaging 5.3 blocks and 7.8 steals.

The clearest advantage for Minnesota has been shooting efficiency. The Lynx are connecting on 51 percent of their field goal attempts, which is significantly stronger than Toronto’s 42 percent mark. That efficiency helped Minnesota win the earlier meeting between these teams and could once again become the deciding factor.

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Pick

Pick: Minnesota Lynx -6.5

Minnesota already defeated Toronto earlier this season and enters this game with a major edge in shooting efficiency. The Lynx are converting 51 percent from the field while Toronto is shooting 42 percent. Even though Toronto has been productive offensively, Minnesota’s balanced offensive attack and previous success in the matchup make the Lynx the stronger side in this spot.

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Total Pick

Pick: Over 172.5

I like the over because Toronto games have consistently featured offense. The Tempo have scored 98, 106, and 95 points in three of their last four games, while Minnesota has also produced strong offensive performances in recent wins over Dallas and Phoenix. Both teams are capable of scoring efficiently, and the recent trends point toward another fast-paced matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 91 – Toronto Tempo 84

This prediction was completed prior to game play on Tuesday.